The Sportsman Weekend
Belle to hit winning note
Smart mare to make it two in-a-row
How the race will be run: No speed battles here, maybe Zawadi and Youngblood head them up at a canter.
The favourites: Aswaat ($3.00) tops the market after breaking through for her first win up here at Sunny Coast last time. It was a reasonably impressive win over uninspiring opposition and this is harder, but with further improvement can be competitive. She does look under the odds to me at $3.00 but is firm in betting.
The roughies: Zawadi has been slowly llifting his rating this prep and ran a top race in stronger company here a fortnight ago. In an even the $10 does stand out so we’ll take some of that.
My view: I have no real interest here in the opener, I can make a case for most of them and I’m not keen on favourite at 2/1. In the end I’ve settled on Relucent as
top pick, his formlines in Victoria were better than Aswaat’s with decent results around Falls and Tooradin, and his first run up here was solid when close-up behind Sokudo. Meets that runner better on weights and he’ll do, but limited exposure here is key.
The bet: Modest win only bets on Relucent ($4.60) and Zawadi ($10).
How the race will be run: Early Thoughts, Rockin’ Artie and Habib will hold sway up front but none of them will want to apply pressure stepping the mile.
The favourites: Finsceal was tough as nails last time running Release Beans to a short neck and has firmed into favouritism here at $4.40. Let it all unfold in front of him and was only a last kick by the winner that got him home. The extra trip is perfect and while he does rise 5kg for the run, this is easier.
The roughies: Rockin’ Artie meets Finsceal 3.5kg better for being beaten a long way, but he will get an easier time of it on speed tomorrow. Over the mark at $18 and we should be doing something with him.
My view: They’ve stuck with the senior rider on Finsceal and I’ll take the tip here. He went into black book the other day when he gave mine a scare and I thought might be shorter than the $4.40 on offer despite the hike in weight. Tempo may some issue but this bloke is still on up and looks a great bet.
The bet: Good go straight out on Finsceal ($4.40). Small each way bet Rockin’ Artie ($18).
How the race will be run: There looks to be some jostling up front with Adelase, Foreign Territory and possibly Nyami searching for a forward spot and we should get genuine speed.
The favourites: There was good money for Baanone ($2.40) to beat Adelase ($2.70) the other day over this c/d and he got the job done. He meets her 1kg better for beating her after the claim and I would think if there is any improvement left in either of them it will manifest itself in Baanone.
The roughies: I have Foreign Territory ($10) in front of a couple more than the market does, but this does look a race between the two faves.
My view: Baanone got nice run in behind last time but from the inside draw is likely to repeat
dose tomorrow. They put a big space on the rest and they do look a big chance of going one-two again.
The bet: Strong win only bet Baanone at $2.40.
How the race will be run: Both Navy Cross and Honorable Spirit would like to lead here and although I’m sure they will sort themselves out in due course, they are likely to inject good early speed into the race for a solid overall time.
The favourites: Navy Cross has been heavily backed into $3.40 and if he leads on his ear will be awfully hard to catch. But there’s the rub, he’s unlikely to be able to shake off Honorable Spirit cheaply, and looking through the form back to his last win he leads all the time invariably gets run down. He feels a touch short in race that to my eye is more even than the market suggests.
The roughies: Just the one down bottom, Puckish ($18) and even he’s not hopeless running a cracker in this grade last start.
My view: I’m opting for Warp Speed here without a whole lot of confidence. He pulled up lame last time under the big weight and drops down 5kg tomorrow. His previous run behind London Banker was excellent and at $5.00 is better value than either of the two favourites.
The bet: Modest each way Warp Speed at $5.00.
How the race will be run: I’m not sure what happens here, perhaps Kalik roll forward but I don’t think he will be overly taxed to lead this small field.
The favourites: Le Palmier got rolled again as favourite first-up when he had it in the bag and he is certainly a frustrating animal for favourite backers. He holds his form second-up and he will likely sit right on Kalik’s hammer, but I’m opting for the once bitten, twice shy strategy with him and at $2.20 looking elsewhere.
The roughies: I don’t think either of them will trouble the scorer.
My view: I was quite taken with the win of Je Suis Belle here two weeks ago, she sat outside
leader and careered away for an impressive result. Her lines through Triple Ace and Shooting For Gold prior to that were outstanding and she should be at the top of betting here. Drawn the paint so she can either kick up to dictate or sit behind the leader and after a series of baffling distance events we finally get to the sprints and whole string of good bets, starting with this mare.
The bet: Solid crack at Je Suis Belle ($2.50).
How the race will be run: Superbowl Sunday looks the leader and should carve out a standard speed.
The favourites: Royal Hale is back in business after breaking through second-up in good fashion. He raced a little below par when he missed place firstup, but had a bit on them last time comfortable winner over this c/d. He can either poke through to lead or take the trail behind Superbowl Sunday and is very appealing at $2.50.
The roughies: No interest in the roughies, to my eye it’s a three-horse race and the quaddie selections will reflect that.
My view: I jumped off Royal Hale after his fresh run and it cost me, I won’t let it cost me again. He’s a very handy sprinter who should be able to break into open class this campaign and can go back to back here at some value.
The bet: Good go on Royal Hale at $2.50. Quaddie 2,3,4 /4,5,7,10 /1,3,4,5 /2,3,4,12.
How the race will be run: They will run this at a genuine speed, headed by Ingear or Sing For Violet.
The favourites: I’m a fan of Ingear and she has plenty going for her when resumes tomorrow. She races well fresh and Ryan Maloney has the option to control it up front or take the sit. The only dent in my enthusiasm is the number of times she has finished a beaten favourite, currently numbering five. Balancing that out is the juicy $3.60 quote on offer so I’m in.
The roughies: Not envisaging any spikes in form from the rough brigade this.
My view: Ingear will look the winner at some point in the straight tomorrow, whether she still looks the winner at the end of 1200m first-up remains to be seen but I’ll back her in. We’ll get some coverage in the quaddie, but at $3.60 she is clear bet on value.
The bet: Decent crack win only on Ingear ($3.60).
How the race will be run: Good speed here. She’s Heavenly is likely to settle in front with The Kewess (7) and Rhapsody Rose (9) sliding across to ensure the pace is genuine.
The favourites: The Kewess has rolled into $2.80 after returning to winning form in easier grade at the Sunny Coast last week but feels very skinny against a much classier line-up tomorrow. He wanted to get on with it first-up when well held in easier company, and while his first prep was pretty solid I don’t see any value at all in the short quote.
The roughies: I’m on Rubiquitous here and I can’t understand why he’s posted out at $11 in a very winnable race. A debut winner at the Sunny Coast, his second run was a cracker when run down by Mystic Gem in the shadows of the post and that race had some depth to it. Decent enough trial win last month cleaning out the cobwebs and at double figure odds is a great gamble each way.
My view: I can’t go past the value of Rubiquitous at $11, I question the price of the favourite in a race where there are several nice types engaged including stakeswinner and Group-placed Rhapsody Rose. I’m confident we can get through the quaddie in four and The Kewess goes in, but he’s poor value on a win-only basis.
The bet: Good each way bet on Rubiquitous at $11.
How the race will be run: Avowal (6) should lead these with Mikado (10) coming across to join him at a standard speed, and Dusty Tycoon settling in behind with cover.
The favourites: Dusty Tycoon had a couple of sighters on wet tracks earlier this campaign but has really hit her straps and I think can be followed with confidence. Converted for the good guys over 1200m here two runs back on the good-4, then was far from disgraced when runner-up to Miami Fleiss last weekend at Doomben. She will slide across and trail the lead pair and at $4.00 is worth a solid go.
The roughies: Ocean Treaty ran an even race first-up from a long spell on the heavy-8 and should be a marked improver tomorrow back top of the ground. Has talent, winning four in a row last prep up to 2020m and the extra furlong suits.
My view: I jumped off Dusty Tycoon onto the winner last weekend but am back on board tomorrow at a decent price. Samurai is on the up, chalking up a deserved win last start and he looks an easy saver at $6.00.
The bet: Decent go on Dusty Tycoon (2x1) at $4.00. Saver-plus win only on Samurai at $6.00.