The Sportsman Weekend
Distance suits Montefilia
Smart mare to appreciate step up in trip
How the race will be run: Highway tempo – can come from anywhere.
The Favourites: Nadaraja led and then led by some more when he won at Scone. Going to take some catching but this is a boiling hot Highway. Private Agent did what few, nay, no others in this line-up would be capable of that day he got beaten 1.8-lengths by Macroura and Wild Ruler on the Kenso. Trialled well and has drawn a peach (4).
The Roughies: Ahead Start has looked like the proverbial ‘good horse’ more often than not. IMO, he shouldn’t be $7.50 compared to Nadaraja at $2.70. There’s just not that much between them.
My View: What a race. Just about the best Highway ever run. I am with Nicci Trix who is super quick (like a lot of them) but looks ready to rock ‘n’ roll off an enormous trial win.
The Bet: Nicci Trix each-way
How the race will be run: Regal Stage and Cognac. Tempo is crucial in this small field.
The Favourites: The race lost all its interest when the evenmoney favourite, Atishu, came out. Kordia suddenly found himself as favourite and fair enough off a last start but he is yet to win at Randwick in four runs and is first time to the mile. Should run the trip okay, it’s just that he is a Bm80 in a Bm88. Bigboyroy should get few, make a lot of favours from barrier 1. That said he has lost 19 of 23.
The Roughies: Can Lankan Rupee’s $1.8 million yearling brother Regal Stage take control and win thanks to the famous Tulloch Lodge bone and muscle? Possible.
My View: Dud race. So long as it isn’t a crawl or a sit and sprint, Cisco Bay could run home over the top of them.
The Bet: Cisco Bay to win
How the race will be run: Big field, good speed from inside to out.
The Favourites: Not many horses win 10 races but that is what Big Surprise is aiming for here. The Kristen Buchanantrained son of Big Brown did a Might And Power on them to win at Gosford – the difference on Saturday is Randwick and pressure, and lots of it. Akiro has been good in all three runs this preparation but I can’t see how he is $5 equal fav with the draw in field.
The Roughies: Foxborough is no Super Impose but I tell you what, she is a very good Randwick Miler.
My View: Lottery Stakes here as most Midways are. I was all over Love Me Quietly two weeks ago in the 1800m Midway on the back-up and thought she was going to win up the rise but didn’t. Back to 1500m is probably a net positive for her. She can get back this time and finish off.
The Bet: Love Me Quietly each-way, Foxborough each-way, ‘Sarge quinella’ 2,15
How the race will be run: Ditto; big field, good pace. All eyes on Rustic Steel given her popularity.
The Favourites: Rustic Steel will need to be very good to win this with the big weight and the wide draw. That said, he has a good horse’s record with 4 wins from 7 starts. On top of that, he is 1 for 1 at the track and is a last start winner. Super Effort is ‘1212’ since he has been with Ryan and Alexiou and should in fact be ‘1211’.
The Roughies: High Supremacy ran a huge race in some moderately races, well compared to this one anyway. Trials have been rippers. Archanna is the market watch having wintered and trialled (twice) in Brisbane. Reformist might have his mojo back.
My View: I thought everyone agreed Tony Be was the Black Booker out of the Sept 4 meeting here yet he went up $23? He just has to improve more here after that hit-out and remember, he was trialling like a bomb before his Oz debut.
The Bet: Tony Be each-way, quinella 11,5, box trifecta 2,5,6,11
How the race will be run: Archedemus and Man Of Peace to deliver a suitable pace for all.
The Favourites: Private Eye proved me wrong first-up in the Show County but didn’t really figure in the Theo Marks without being hopeless. Won 7 out of 11 – that’s a hard stat to ignore. Every avid trial watcher knew that Aramayo was Christmas in September at $41 in the Tramway. He was never going to beat Zaaki (despite what I thought) but his class and general state of wellbeing was all too evident in his trial 9-days prior. Atishu was huge first-up, big again second-up. We will find out about him here.
The Roughies: Duais is the system horse first-up out of an Oaks – which she won. So genuine is she that you know she would run well in an Oakleigh Plate or a Jericho.
My View: Harmony Rose is also first-up from an Oaks but as well as being a system horse, she is 2 for 2 first-up, both of them were over this trip. Trialling well too. Waller ‘A’s, Atishu and Aramayo are the dangers.
The Bet: Harmony Rose to win
How the race will be run: Never Been Kissed and maybe the stablemate Swift Witness to cross.
The Favourites: Is it too early to say that Four Moves Ahead is becoming very costly? I know she has run two smashing races in the first legs on the Princess Series but he has been beaten both times. That said, she has raced like 1400m will bring out a peak performance. She’s All Class let the side down badly in the Furious but she had a little setback beforehand missing run and a few other things. Mallory was the eye-catcher in the Furious. She is going to devour the 1400m and then the mile in Flight.
The Roughies: Not name dropping but I spoke to Clarry Conners on Tuesday and he was keen to talk his mate Singo into scratching Mokulua from the Kensington Wednesday meeting to run here then the Flight and then the VRC Oaks like her mum, Dear Demi won in 2012. Maiden filly but she really stretched Profondo last start.
My View: I know Von Trapp only won a provincial maiden last start but there is no way she should be $34 here. The Frankel filly have nearly beaten Chill on debut on the Kensington track then was off map when she won at Hawkesbury. We just don’t know her ceiling yet.
The Bet: Von Trapp each-way, quinella 4,11
How the race will be run: One word – Riodini. Does he try to pinch it again?
The Favourites: Verry Elleegant is the horse to beat but a long way from being unbeatable unless for some reason we got to heavy. Think It Over showed all his fighting qualities when he down the bolter Riodini in the Chelmsford. The Kembla conveyance is deadly at these Randwick Miles and so long as it is not slow or heavy, he can upset the Waller mare.
The Roughies: Lion’s Roar is a Randwick Guineas winner over this trip. I tipped him to beat Zaaki in the Tramway and I’m about to make some crazy case that he should have won, of course not, but Lion’s Roar wasn’t as bad as all that.
My View: Think It Over is as genuine they come and while he is not in the class of say an Addeybb, I am hoping that he can be a length or two (hopefully more) in front of Verry Elleegant at the turn and call on all that will and determination to repel the inevitable challenge.
The Bet: Think It Over to win, exacta 2 to beat 7, Lion’s Roar place
How the race will be run: Dare I say – good tempo? How about fast.
The Favourites: Nature Strip has a winning draw. Likely leads, sure to be hard to down. Two interesting stats – one good, one not as good – is that he is 5 for 7 at the trip but ‘only 4 from 10 Randwick. Masked Crusader trialled as well as any horse I have ever seen before he went to Melbourne and won like Chautauqua.
The Roughies: Just in terms of the others, and I am no bookie, but I thought Lost And Running, Eduardo Gytrash would all be shorter than Rothfire but maybe I am selling him short.
My View: Big call time. I think Masked Crusader will win The Everest and while this is only the dress rehearsal, I am sure he is in the zone.
The Bet: Masked Crusader to win
How the race will be run: Spirit Ridge, Fun Fact and Taikomichi in no particular order. Hence a solidly run Kingston Town.
The Favourites: She’s Ideel is the ‘weight horse’ of the day. Montefilia was 10 points over odds when she resumed and ran accordingly. Asked David Payne on Tuesday and he said ‘she’s flying’. Spirit Ridge is as genuine as they come. Just needs to cross without spending his allowance.
The Roughies: Two stayers that will run hugely improved races here on their way to the Metrop namely Master Of Wine and Attorney.
My View: Montefilia could win the Caulfield Cup and/or the Metrop along the way but for what it is worth, I still say Luncies a chance in both unless he proves me wrong the Newcastle Cup on Friday.
The Bet: Montefilia to win
How the race will be run: Very fast.
The Favourites: Equation was $6 into $4.20 on Wednesday which is a decent push for a horse in this big, bold field. Marway was $8 into $6 at the same time. The Wagga Town Plate destroyer will get his chance to do his thing from alley.
The Roughies: I love the way Marway’s stablemate Lord Olympus has been trialling. He has box 3 so he’s going to give a good sight from there.
My View: Speaking of triallers, you would be hard pressed to find any horse racing on Saturday (Eduardo included) that has trialled better than Quantico. Three words – run to suit.
The Bet: Quantico win