The Sportsman Weekend
Miami’s ready to shine
Smart mare to win again in the Cup
How the race will be run: Kingscote should find the lead and with a trio of well fancied runners close-up they should run it along.
The favourites: Equal faves down the bottom, both firming into $3.40. She Can Sing will have a better time of it tomorrow from (3) than she did against Miami Fleiss at Doomben. Her fresh win was huge to notch a hat-trick and she is a worthy fave. A River Somewhere resumed at Bm65 level last time and bolted in, clearing out to win by more than three lengths after racing in traffic throughout. She was allowed settle behind the leader which should stand her in good stead tomorrow.
The roughies: I think these two faves may have the wood on the speccy brigade.
My view: That was some win by A River Somewhere the other day, she’s up in grade and back onto a dry track but I’ll her in. She’s full sister to emerging stallion Headwater so she’s already worth a packet, but I think there are bigger prizes than a Bm65 in her future. Her equal favourite is no slouch so we won’t over commit but I think this is the one.
The bet: Decent go on A River Somewhere at $3.40.
How the race will be run: Navy Cross will take it up and try to slow things down but with Honorable Spirit in close attendance it shouldn’t be too lethargic.
The favourites: Honorable Spirit ($3.20) made it four wins from his last six outings when he brained an okay Bm72 field last weekend. He’s up to 58.5kg tomorrow against much better opposition but those two variables do have to eat away at a five length margin so he’s still right in the mix.
The roughies: Half the field are under $10 and the winner will come from those.
My view: The big question mark here is Purrfect Deal who is miles better than these with a stakes win and placing under her belt already at a trip. The leveller is that even with a 3kg claim for Jaden Lloyd she will still have to carry 62kg which is a big ask. Mind you, carried that impost in the Cup Prelude at Grafton back June and won by three and a half so she is no stranger to big weights. She gave away too much of start to a very in-form stayer in London Banker last time but will be close enough if good enough tomorrow. At $3.60 I’m sticking solid.
The bet: Decent bet on Purrfect Deal (2x1) at $3.60/$1.50.
How the race will be run: Oriental Princess probably leads Rubiquitous and they will go quickly.
The favourites: Rhapsody Rose is the class entrant in the field with a win and two placings at stakes level in her juvenile year. Resumed nice run behind Rubiquitous over the 1000m dash and even an extra 100m here will help. She is still giving weight to the boys which is a concern but she is a genuine hope.
The roughies: Oriental Princess is an interesting runner, she bolted in on debut then was thrown the deep end in the Calaway Gal where she ran them along and was still in touch a furlong out before knocking up. Allowed to go around at her own speed in a recent trial here after leading and resumes tomorrow. Big ask to beat these, but will probably be in front on the turn and I think she has untapped ability. At $34 I’m saving her for sure.
My view: This is one of the more interesting non-stakes races I can remember up here for a good while, what a cracker. Several of these have more to give than they shown date, including Mister Larrabee who put in a great fresh run behind Rubiquitous a fortnight ago, trailing the field before cutting the corner and sticking on well despite peaking on his run. He’ll strip fitter tracks a strong tempo, I’m happy enough with the $4.60. I think this will turn out to be a super formline going forward.
The bet: Good bet on Mister Larrabee (2x1) at $4.60. Smaller each way bet on Oriental Princess at $34.
How the race will be run: They’ll hardly come up for air here with Sugar Boom leading King Klaus and Tavisan.
The favourites: The Move is extremely short here at $2.00, virtually in layable territory. It was a big win first-up and this bloke has certainly come of age after some disappointing results early on. Far too strong for the Bm75 field at Doomben but runs into some high quality speedsters tomorrow stepping up into open grade. He also has to drop back from 1050m to 900m which most certainly plays against him.
The roughies: For the exotics, Boblee ($13) is on improve and will appreciate a strong tempo.
My view: If laying is an exchange option you’d consider then I’d be The Move at $2.00 on the score of value, there’s not enough between him and stablemate Sugar Boom to warrant the price disparity. Sugar Boom put in a nice trial at the end of August running home under her own steam, and last time over this c/d on a dry track she produced massive run to win easily. She didn’t have a great time of it in the autumn running into wet tracks on which she is a notable duffer, but first-up here from (2) over 900m a good track, she will lead and make it very tough for them to catch her. The Move is a talent tracks the speed but has enough against him to make him bad value at even money.
The bet: Another (2x1) bet, on Sugar Boom $4.60.
How the race will be run: Montez and Our Rebel are the lead pair both looking to stack them up.
The favourites: Aswaat ($3.50) posted a comfortable win the other day after sitting back off a strong speed and was too strong in the run home. This is a significant jump in quality of opposition tomorrow and she won’t get the tempo here that did last time, but she is in the mix.
The roughies: Irish Sequel put in a top effort first-up running home at the end of 1400m to miss by half a length and will relish the push out to 1800m. A European import in the Chris Waller stable coming off a huge fresh effort, I’m not sure why he’s $12.
My view: Fortified had support in the Qld Derby last prep and has come to hand very quickly this time in, scoring a strong win under 59kg second-up. He’s destined for bigger things and happy to be on him at $5 but this is an open race so we’ll limit the exposure.
The bet: Cautious win bet Fortified ($5). Each way Irish Sequel ($12).
How the race will be run: Weona Smartone works early to cross from outside gate then puts on the breaks.
The favourites: Weana Smartone is into $1.40 and that’s about his right price. Tough win first-up when he went straight to 1200m and hung on, he’s fitter tomorrow gets a soft lead.
The roughies: I don’t think they’ll get close to the top two in betting.
My view: I may have entertained Tramonto if there was more pressure engaged as he is in great touch with stakes placings at three of his last five runs, but Weona Smartone has a full tank on straightening and should be too slick.
The bet: Weona Smartone at $1.40. Second quaddie in a row for us last weekend ($943) but slim pickings for us this weekend with some shorties engaged. Quaddie 2/4,8,10 /1,2,4,9,12 /1,2,3,5,7
How the race will be run: Miami Fleiss leads without much competition and have plenty left on straightening.
The favourites: Miami Fleiss did it tough first-up off the track but bounced back in good style last time with an easy win over a good field of mares. This is easier despite the rise in grade and with no pressure up front should win again.
The roughies: Scottish Mist ($23) put in a nice run at Doomben last start, and Enterprise Keren ($23) can a race fresh, but both will need the favourite to have an off day to figure.
My view: Miami Fleiss is the right price at $1.50 so we’ll back up on her and get a little protection against disaster in the quaddie.
The bet: Win only Miami Fleiss ($1.50).
How the race will be run: Bohemian Boom should lead and with little pressure will look for some soft sectionals in running.
The favourites: Morethannumberone is very short at $2.25 and from (12) going to earn the win. His only defeat in three runs this prep was behind Lasting Kiss which is no disgrace and this is winnable, but he struggled to win over this trip down south and with 59kg is way too short.
The roughies: They’ve gone up the wrong price about Bohemian Boom ($19) who was ridden
for a long, long way early on to find the lead last time and was still pestered when he got there. Had a big enough kick to hold them off over 1400m and there’s no pressure on him at all tomorrow so he should have more in the tank straightening. Drops 1.5kg after the claim, at $6 I’d be looking for better value, $19 I’m having a good crack.
My view: Bohemian Boom is the wrong price so we’re on at the $19, it’s a far more open contest than market is indicating.
The bet: Good each way go on Bohemian Boom at $19.
How the race will be run: Catesby will probably look to cross and either lead or match motors with Run For Glory at a standard clip.
The favourites: is very firm into $3.10 after a real eyecatcher second-up, pushing Ballistic Boy right to the wire. Back in class tomorrow, drawn well and Leah Kliner has options at the jump to lead comfortably or in unison with Catesby, or to take the trail.
The roughies: Eight of the 10 runners are single figures so there should be some drifters, but the market has it sewn up.
My view: Run For Glory won five in a row around this trip this time last year and tomorrow can be the start of another winning sequence for him. He gets all the favours and is still backable at $3.10.
The bet: Good go on Run For Glory at $3.10.