The Sportsman Weekend
Profondo to win again
Blueblood colt looks a class above
How the race will be run: Cognac is a known on-pacer but is there chance Achiever rolls and bowls under his big weight?
The Favourites: Unforgotten’s half-brother, Yiyi, is so consistent that you couldn’t leave him out, much less given that he was a comprehensive winner over race rival, Bazooka, at his (Yiyi’s) only run here at home. Achiever is a black-type Waller horse who peaks third-up over the right trip.
The Roughies: Even race/ market hence nothing is rough. Have to get Crystal Pegasus in someone. He’s in smashing form.
My View: Bazooka has 54kg so shouldn’t have any excuses for not letting down as always. Just needs to leave himself enough time reel in some/most of these.
The Bet: Bazooka to win
How the race will be run: Highway tempo; nearly always safe to back one that can finish off. Hello Kermatin.
The Favourites: So Say You lines-up in her fourth consecutive Highway on Saturday noting that she is ‘133’ the way there. Interesting she drew ‘161’ respectively in those other three but has to contend with a wide alley this time. That’s all. Kermatin (see below). Without Shame is definitely Highway class and will be running on hard. Very hard.
The Roughies: Chase The Crown is a medal contender; she and Yulong Base both find the line when circumstances permit.
My View: You should have seen Kermatin first-up at Moruya. He was a conspicuous last the turn there but charged late to finish fourth beaten a length. Going to have to do that – and more – again from the draw it seems.
The Bet: Kermatin to win, box trifecta 10,11,13,15
How the race will be run: Ruby Tuesday and Barossa Rossa the two most likely. Happy tempo for all.
The Favourites: Calgary Queen is another of the seemingly never-ending supply of Widdup mares who race so consistently. This one won first-up then was no match for the uber-talented Promise Of Success after that but gets her chance to bounce back with McDonald on (he won on first-up). Barossa Babe sent out all the right signs first-up. Ruby Tuesday will be prominent throughout.
The Roughies: Lovemetender was luckless in a Group 2 two starts ago. Not flash after that but she has to be considered given her featherweight.
My View: Could be a big day for Profondo’s trainer, Richard Litt, who has Catapult here. The former Godolphin horse invariably flashes up late. Granted he has to find a few lengths but at $23, he is worth shot.
The Bet: Catapult each-way
How the race will be run: The Waterhouse/Bott pair – Taikamochi and Entente up front and should make it true enough without cutting at each other.
The Favourites: No Compromise is thoroughly entitled to be the favourite here albeit a weebit shorter than I would have anticipated but does stand out. Stablemate Criminal Code ran a huge race in the Wyong Cup (2nd) and wasn’t disgraced in the Newcastle Cup after that. Nicely weighted.
The Roughies: Pesto is racing like a horse that not only wants 2400m but like a horse who might actually hit new peak. He was winding up late and strong through the line in that 2000m Kembla Bm78 two weeks ago bearing in mind he was only second-up that day.
My View: If No Compromise runs up to his Newcastle Cup placing, he won’t get beat. Expecting a big turn out from Pesto.
The Bet: No Compromise to
How the race will be run: Very fast this one. All eyes on Paulele – first furlong crucial for it.
The Favourites: Paulele is not out of the Everest picture but he would really need to win convincingly and run time. Both of which of course are possible but it’s a good line-up here and he’s not well served by the draw. Home Affairs (see below). King Of Sparta has turned the corner since he was gelded and will relish a fast run race here so he can launch late.
The Roughies: The fillies Enterprise Pomme (4th in the Furious) and barnstorming midweek winner A Very Fine Red are good odds at $12 and $14 respectively.
My View: Is Home Affairs going to step up here and make himself an Everest horse? That’s for his owner/slot holders to consider but so far as the Heritage goes, I can’t tip against him off his incredibly impressive trials. He is flying.
The Bet: Home Affairs to win, exacta 2 to beat 11
How the race will be run: Archedemus and Discharged are known leaders, Love Tap super handy/box seat even.
The Favourites: was back to his best winning start. Didn’t he look good at full gallop. No weight but no value IMO. Imaging has the honour of being the highest rated (106) horse racing on Golden Rose Day and has been priced accordingly. The Waller trained gelding is back to a very moderate G2 line-up here after being beaten three odd lengths in the Group 1 Makybe Diva by Incentivise and Mo’unga. Huge respect.
The Roughies: Yonkers has never won here but he is 3 starts, 2 wins at the trip and goes well enough fresh to entertain, placewise, in this year’s mediocre edition of the Shannon.
My View: Best Of Days is a very good horse on top of the ground so we have to mark him up for his run in the Feehan. Was good in the P.B Lawrence before that so peaks back home thirdup. Perfect timing.
The Bet: Best Of Days to win
How the race will be run: Lost our natural leader with Ruby Tuesday out. Vangelic maybe now? The key to the race is what happens in the first 400m for James McDonald and Entriviere.
The Favourites: Te Akau champion mare Entriviere wasn’t at all diminished by her setback which forced her to postpone her scheduled resumption and instead go to the Sheraco towel them up big time. Barrier 12 of 12 of here has lifted the prospects her rivals but she’s a star. Fiteuse was no match for Kiwi mare at Kembla given she got closest to her in the Sheraco, you can understand why is the second pick here, particularly in light of their respective barriers.
The Roughies: I am staggered beyond belief that Pippali went up $201 on Monday. OK, she can’t beat Entriviere but never stops trying and is going to relish the 1400m on the big track thirdup.
My View: How can you tip against a mare who is 8s 6-2-0? If she hadn’t have drawn where she has, would probably be borderline unbeatable.
The Bet: Entriviere to win
How the race will be run: In The Congo – how fast is up to him. It will be fascinating see how much pressure he gets actually because it will matter a lot to the two ‘A’s at the top of the sheet.
The Favourites: More on Anamoe in a minute but let’s all cheer on the punter who has a five horse all up $1,000 to $46,670 if Anamoe and Zaaki both win on Saturday. One of his legs was a horse at Dubbo on September 12. Artorius has always been the perfect Golden Rose horse and he gets to the race in smashing form. The draw? Wouldn’t want anyone other than Jason Collett to overcome that.
The Roughies: Forensics is the only filly to have won the Golden Rose. I suspect that will remain so after Saturday but I can see the Kembla filly and last start Furious Stakes winner, Jamaea, running on hard into a place. She is terribly underrated.
My View: He hasn’t won yet, but Anamoe looks a good thing in the race with even luck. If anything, it two-horse race between him and Artorius on paper unless the real Remarque ever emerges.
The Bet: Anamoe to win, exacta 1 to beat 2, Daily Double 1st leg (1), 2nd leg (5)
How the race will be run: Hard to know with any certainty but we have a big sized field so saying decent enough pace.
The Favourites: Apart from trainer Richard Litt and the chap (Ottavio Galleta) who paid $1.9m for Profondo, there is no bigger fan of this Deep Impact son than yours truly. I know people who backed him to win the Cox Plate before he made his debut at the midweeks. That might be throwing money away but he was $301.
The Roughies: There are two very, very good roughies in Dark Rebel (wants the trip) and the cleverly-named Benaud (Reliable Man out of Baggy Green) who was so impressive winning that Nowra maiden. He was always going to be in this race; then again, so was Profondo.
My View: Profondo could be anything if he wins this. If he wins by a lot, I’d be going to the Cox Plate but say it would be Spring Champion – spell, come back in the autumn.
The Bet: Profondo to win
How the race will be run: The whole basically centres around what Nash Rawiller does on Ellsberg from the start. Everything.
The Favourites: Ellsberg would have been a more like $3 had he not drawn 14 of 14. That said, has Nash Rawiller on and who says that he can’t ping the lids and get over without spending too much gas. We know that he is flying, we that he is deadly fresh, he loves his home track and his trial was a beauty. Not all surprised to see Kiku kept so very safe in the market (more to come).
The Roughies: No one could have missed the first-up performance of Bullfinch who ought to strip fitter for run. I was all over Ventura Ocean last start, he wasn’t great by any means on face value but there might have been some hidden merit looking deeper into it.
My View: Kiku has some mighty compelling numbers for this across the board and you had to love those two trials. On top of that, he has a very good draw and jockey.
The Bet: Kiku to win