The Sportsman Weekend

Luncies to stay the trip

Metropolit­an going to Lees and Dolan

- WITH SHAYNE O’CASS

RACE 1

How the race will be run: This could be a very fast run race with a lot of pressure up front as result.

The Favourites: Good early support for the Capitalist replica Capital Reign who is a flying machine. Worth noting that if it’s a bit wet, his dad was duffer but his mum is by Snitzel which accounts for why this horse is 2 for 2 on slow. Delexio has been terribly dominant in his two wins this preparatio­n. Sticky gate for a go-forward horse.

The Roughies: Lancaster Bomber is far and away the highest rated horse here and could sit back get last look in what promises to be a fast run Midway.

My View: Went looking for a reason to lay the favourite (Capital Reign) but apart from ‘pressure’, and being a three-year-old, I couldn’t really find one.

The Bet: Capital Reign to win.

RACE 2

How the race will be run: Hard to say of course but one would suspect a very genuine tempo. All eyes on what happens to Coolangatt­a in the first 200m.

The Favourites: Huge interest all week Coolangatt­a and rightly so. She was Enthaar-like in her trial and we all remember what stablemate did in the Gimcrack when it was her turn to step out. Not sure it is a slam dunk though given how well Drisana trialled at the official two-year-olds. She will keep the favourite honest, especially in view of their respective draws.

The Roughies: Wild Botanica can get her first season sire, Speith, off to a flyer here. She was very good indeed winning her heat at the big trial last Monday week and gave the impression she would be strong late.

My View: Impossible to go past Coolangatt­a on the trial win, the way she just ambled up them and put them to bed with a lot of race-smarts. Confident enough she gets the job done.

The Bet: Coolangatt­a to win, trifecta 2 (standout) to beat 3,4,11.

RACE 3

How the race will be run: Fast again – as in the previous – with all eyes this time on Kibou out of Tulloch Lodge.

The Favourites: Victory Moments is another Speith. Wow, how good are they going at the trials. Have to like what he did on the day. Zero knock and all respect. Kibou would have been $2.80 if he drew anywhere other than 14. He’ll have to be a damn good colt to win from out there but he might be.

The Roughies: I am all over Emperor here so the runner-up to him in the heat must go in – that’s Sejardan from the Golden Slipper stable of Gary Portelli. Bred to get going outset.

My View: When I saw the nomination­s, I was thinking where is Genghis Khan? He’s here but he’s had a name change – he is now called Emperor. For what it worth, I marked him as the best male trialler all day and equal with Coolangatt­a the

trialler at the official heats. The Bet: Emperor (the I Am Invincible/Jolie Bay) to win, box First 4: Nos. 2,4,11,13.

RACE 4

How the race will be run: Kiss The Bride is not all well served by draw but it is the Randwick mile. Just Thinkin’ drawn to hold the fence if he wanted

The Favourites: Kiss The Bride was given a picnic with all the trimmings when beat Bigboyroy and Kordia (both run here) when he won last time. Bit different from 12 of 12 this time around.

The Roughies: Prompt Prodigy is the best performed horse in

race. He was actually quite good first-up on a bad track at Kembla and has never been a second-up horse so let’s forgive him for that last run.

My View: Terrible race. Maybe Waihere Falls but with no confidence.

The Bet: Waihere Falls eachway.

RACE 5

How the race will be run: One word – tactical. How this one plays out will be fascinatin­g but the real key is not the tempo state of the track for Think It Over in particular.

The Favourites: I would never knock a champion but Verry Elleegant had it served up to her to win last start. If it hadn’t of rained, I reckon Think It Over gets a lot closer and maybe even would have run her to a neck at most. That said, I tipped Think It Over on the Wednesday when I did the tips and the track was a Good 4, he was a million to one to beat her when it poured rain.

The Roughies: If was really wet, Think It Over is in big trouble which opens it up for something like Duais.

My View: Everything comes down to the track. If it’s Soft 5, Think It Over should still be too good for them. Once we get to a Soft 6, well, I am starting worry. Anything worse, I’ll be staying out altogether. The ‘safe bet’ might be Shared Ambition who has finally drawn a good barrier and he is not going to get much fitter.

The Bet: Think It Over to win on a Good 4 or Sift 5, otherwise Shared Ambition to win.

RACE 6

How the race will be run: Fast run – could be really quick in fact. Patterns crucial by now.

The Favourites: Masked Crusader was awesome winning at Caulfield but pretty underwhelm­ing to the eye in The Shorts. You couldn’t say he was terrible but I for one toned down my ‘wins the Everest’ rhetoric after that. He can bounce back but he needs to make a statement here if is going to win the big race. Rothfire half loomed up in The Shorts but ended running a fairly distant fourth. Got to be pleased with that if you are Robert Heathcote given all the circumstan­ces of the time away etc,

The Roughies: Embracer is not up to the Everest trio; as in beating all three of them one huge go but gee whiz he is trialling well.

My View: I must say, I am iffy about Masked Crusader given I was declaring him to win The Shorts but the more you look at it, he wasn’t nearly as bad as all that on day from where he was and other things like that. As George Michael would say ‘You’ve gotta have faith’. Ditto for Lost And Running.

The Bet: Masked Crusader to win.

RACE 7

How the race will be run: Big Group 1 field with plenty to play for equals a good tempo.

The Favourites: Startantes was terrific in the Golden Rose but she was $21 whereas she is $3.80 here. Seems a bit short to me is back to her own sex and has always looked like the mile would suit especially on a big track. Personally, I thought Four Moves Ahead and Mallory would be ahead of the Queensland­er on their respective runs in the Tea Rose but there you go. Mallory wants the trip, big time, while Sarge’s filly has the best turn of foot in race.

The Roughies: I know Left Reeling is no more than a ‘provincial maiden’ on paper, but she is trained by Sarge and the blinkers go on up to a mile. Maybe the Wakeful unless Danny O’Brien’s filly is there.

My View: I was all over Von Trapp at the $71 (into $51) in the Furious and thought, like many, that she was the run of the race. Von Trapp is by Frankel so is born and bred for Randwick mile.

The Bet: Von Trapp each-way.

RACE 8

How the race will be run: Got to be Riodini again but thank goodness for Asham to make sure it’s fair to all.

The Favourites: Is it just me or is anyone else surprised about Riodini being the $4.80 favourite here? Barrier 15 – Randwick mile and all, it’s a big ask. If Riodini has the job ahead then so does second pick Mo’unga. I guess

saving grace for him is ability and that X-factor.

The Roughies: Heaps of them. Aramayo is peaking – big time – here. He’s a better horse than his weight and they are sort of animals that win these big handicaps. He is not exactly a muddie though.

My View: Very worried about the track conditions and this is a tip only not a bet given how far out I am writing this but Hungry Heart is ready and able to win. The track might be her downfall – time will tell.

Bet: I have tipped Hungry Heart to beat Aramayo but if the track gets swamped, I am with Cascadian win.

RACE 9

How the race will be run: Should be a pretty solid test of stamina on the day with the prospect of rain in lead-up.

The Favourites: A lot of horses are peaking for this, (only one) more so than Montefilia. She’s all class and has had this as her Sydney Grand Final from the day she wrapped up her autumn campaign. Entente will be prominent and that might worth two lengths on the day – I don’t know. She’s Ideel makes a simple and compelling case for herself.

The Roughies: Matthew Smith is a very good conditione­r of stayers and he’s got Attorney here ready to deliver his best with a little help from JMac.

My View: This is Luncies race if he can get through the wet – and they are saying it is going to be – it’s a matter of how now. It’s just the great unknown but he is flying.

The Bet: Luncies to win.

RACE 10

How the race will be run: In a word – Fast. (If they all run)

The Favourites: Big money for Big Parade who has the winning draw if he is good enough on the day. Gravina was $7 into $4.80 score of his fabulous numbers.

The Roughies: Prime Candidate was never going to be let go around at $21 (his opening quote) off his trial and ability which is why he was $11 when betting got underway on Wednesday.

My View: Quantico might not run if we get super wet, much less now with the 14 of 14 draw. Have to be mindful the weather/track conditions.

The Bet: Quantico each-way or, if scratched, Prime Candidate each-way.

 ?? ?? Masked Crusader.
Masked Crusader.

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