The Sportsman Weekend
Georgie looks too good
Forster’s Pride set to win first-up
How the race will be run: Just impossible to do a map for this lot.
The favourites: Palazzo Spirit runs fave here at $3.20 after a couple of good trial results. Under a hold at his first trial but was let go little last time to post a three length win. Drawn out bit which is going to make it harder.
The roughies: At a pinch, Thelwell ($13) went just as well as Palazzo Spirit when they met in their Doomben trial a couple of weeks ago. He’s drawn better than the fave and there probably shouldn’t be as much between them as there is.
My view: Currently a soft-5 and I’m looking at somewhere between a soft-6 and heavy-9, there’s just no telling how much we’ll get between now racetime. Banking on a soft-7 to heavy-8 and breeding plays as much of a role for me here anything else. I’ve ended up with Honkytonk Diva who missed the kick a long way in her trial and went to the line nicely after making up ton of ground. An early runner for young sire Under The Louvre who handled the wet, out of Dulacca Diva making her a half-sister to a stakeswinner up here. Drawn well, Jim Byrne to steer, she’ll do at the $9.50.
The bet: Small each way bet Honkytonk Diva
How the race will be run: Toujours L’Amour probably leads from the low draw and there doesn’t look to be much pressure up front.
The favourites: The Pines dominates the market at $2.40 and rightly so, her formlines are excellent for this. Placed her last two behind the flying Miami Fleiss after a tidy fresh run, she’s by Rothesay out of a SAH mare so should be swimmer and is two for two on the soft. Drawn well and comes in under the limit after the claim.
The roughies: Shadow Of Time is over the odds at $26, he’s taken a while to find his feet this campaign but did well in the autumn. His last heavy track run was close-up behind Wonderful Riri and we might save on him at the big quote.
My view: The Pines had to carry 57.5kg and give 2.5kg Miami Fleiss last run, and tomorrow against much weaker grade carries 53.5kg. She is racing very well and is worth having a decent crack at.
The bet: Solid bet win only
Pines ($2.40). Small each way Shadow Of Time ($26).
How the race will be run: Ingear (6) and Contemptuous (9) will have to work to cross Mort
Doyle (1) and with a couple drawn the carpark that will push forward the pressure be on.
The favourites: Ingear is a slight drifter to $3.50 despite clinging on for a tough first-up win at Eagle Farm. She doesn’t have much experience on wet ground, though her last result in March was awful. The slosh here makes it a grinding 1200m event which is going to test her as her forays beyond the six furlongs have seen her run out of puff. Add to that the pressure up front and she will earn the win.
The roughies: Mort Doyle is worth a second-string bet at $26, he has big weight but has drawn the paint and should be able to slot in behind the more favoured runners transit. He does like it wet, is racing well this time in and will run a race.
My view: This is a very handy line-up for Bm72 and I’ve settled on Contemptuous who has excellent lines. Solid win last run after chasing home high quality sprinter Tramonto, and with lines through Weona Smartone and Amiche he has the best form in the race. Goes okay in the wet, he just needs some luck from gate but he can take a sit off fence with cover. Saving on the roughie and we’ll box all of above in a small quinella but there are many hopes so we won’t overcommit.
The bet: Contemptuous win only at $4.60. Each way Mort Doyle ($26). Box Q 3,4,11.
How the race will be run: Southern Rock might cross from (11) to lead stablemate Riot Act (8) at a sluggish tempo.
The favourites: My nemesis Aswaat heads the market again tomorrow but in stronger company is at a backable $5.00 quote.
Fell short of her hat-trick last time, but not by much. Unknown quantity in the wet but I’m no knock on breed and she can possy up closer behind the slow speed. Genuine hope again.
The roughies: Not much to speak of amongst the roughies, all the chances are under $10.
My view: I’ll stick with Ocean Treaty tomorrow, she did us a big favour winning two runs back at huge odds and she’s bred to love it wet. Nice enough run last time but strips fitter well in after the claim.
The bet: Ocean Treaty each way ($8.00).
How the race will be run: Our Rebel (4) and Palaszczuk (6) should be one-two on settling and won’t overdo it up front.
The favourites: Kubrick is a firmer into $3.60, that’s courageous. I thought I was gone for all money on Deep Sceiva last weekend until I realised the runner that loomed up to go straight past me was Kubrick. He’s just struggling to finish off his race and stretched his run of outs last time to 19. I’ll continue to risk him, especially at the top betting, until he pokes nose out.
The roughies: I thought First Son would be shorter than $18 lining up for his hat-trick. Made it two from two with a tough win at the Sunny Coast last week and he did stand out in the run carrying his head very low to the ground. Should enjoy extra trip, I have no idea about wet track factor but if it helps him he has to rate a hope.
My view: Not overly keen on the race but Our Rebel will give them something to chase. Up in weight back in trip which suits, I’ll save on First Son and limit the exposure.
The bet: modest win only bets on Our Rebel ($5.50) and First Son ($18).
How the race will be run: Conquer The Stars (12) can scoot across from bad gate to score a cheap lead and will control the speed.
The favourites: Run For Glory sits at $5.00 in a wide open betting race but was little flat I thought last run. Previous effort to get nosed out by Ballistic Boy was outstanding and he is capable of bouncing back.
The roughies: Couldn’t Refuse ($13) will be fitter after two runs back and gets out to his pet trip tomorrow. Likes it wet and can take up a forward spot if the speed falls away.
My view: So Taken was an eyecatcher second-up, hitting the line behind Animate. All of her success has been on wet tracks and the mile should suit. As good as any at $7.50.
The bet: Each way So Taken ($7.50). Quaddie 1,5,7,8,11 /3,8,9,10,16 /1,2,5,7 /1,2,5,6.
How the race will be run: Georgie’s Pride fly the gates to try and head Krakatoa Eruption, bring Full Nelson across with her at a brisk pace.
The favourites: The Face is multiple stakes-placed down south but has been out of the money in two runs this prep. Not beaten far at Randwick last start and drops sharply in weight, but from (15) is going to be doing it tough. I don’t think he can find the lead which means will be off track, that might the ticket late in the day if the track is heavy, but at $3.10 I’m working around him.
The roughies: The $23 about
Say Haya is a bit unfair, she handles the wet and will strip fitter tomorrow. Drawn to track the speed a couple of pairs back and will be strong late.
My view: I’m a big fan of Georgie’s Pride and happy with the $4.80 on offer. She is flyer and capable of sustained speed, she’s bred to swim and won her only start in the wet back in the early days. The Face gets a run in the quaddie as do a couple at big odds.
bet: Good bet (2x1) Georgie’s Pride ($4.80).
How the race will be run: King Klaus, Spaceboy and Weboughtazou will be jostling for the front spot here they won’t get much of a breather midrace.
The favourites: Spaceboy is a big firmer into $3.80 and he does love the sting out of the ground. He can lead but might be better served tracking speed to the bend, he finds one better an awful lot but looks well placed tomorrow.
The roughies: Pizonie ($11) will appreciate the strong speed and he gets through the going okay, a run in quaddie.
My view: I think planets are all lining up for The Odyssey here and I’m jumping on for the first time in a long while. Nice run fresh behind The Move, he loves it wet and the 1050m looks perfect. Tracks speed until straightening where he pounces and wins comfortably at $6.00. At least that’s the plan.
bet: Good go each way on The Odyssey at $6.00.
How the race will be run: Several leaders but I think Oriental Princess will take it up again at a solid clip.
The favourites: It’s not often we see form of the calibre of Enterprise Pomme up here at this time of year, but she is and will take a power of beating. She was competitive with Alpine Edge two runs back then went south and race a mighty race in the Furious Stakes to finish up just a length from Jamaea at the end. Probably on a limb from (10) but it might be the place to be the end of the day and the $3.00 is a fair price about her.
The roughies: There’s no way I’m letting Oriental Princess go around without being on her again. She dug deep to hold them off first-up at the Gold Coast a fortnight ago, bless her cotton socks, and showed on debut that she can run through the slop and still be strong at end. The extra 100m will test, but I think the other leader types will let her go and look to finish over the top and that’s her best chance to steal the win.
My view: Enterprise Pomme has by far the best form, if she runs up to either of her last two outings she wins, and at $3.00 is still in the value range. I’m backing Oriental Princess again as she owes me nothing and will be in front for a long way.
The bet: Good bet Enterprise Pomme (2x1), each way Oriental Princess ($15).