The Sportsman Weekend
September’s the class
Waller’s mare can return to winning ways
How the race will be run: Anyone’s guess. Commodity and Cavalla will try to cross over from wide draws.
My view: Magic Carpet is a nice filly by Lonhro in the strong Godolphin team and liked her recent jumpout when she hit the line nicely under a good hold. Capable of threatening these. Brereton trialled well at Cranbourne a few weeks back and looks a promising type. Immortality is trained on the track did enough in his jumpout to suggest he has talent. Cavalla did everything right to win down the straight at Flemington on debut and has that valuable race experience on her side.
Suggested bet: Magic Carpet each way.
How the race will be run: Buffalo River look to control the tempo and should do so comfortably. So Si Bon, Never Again and Mr Exclusive won’t be far away.
My view: Kahma Lass is good value here. Think she’s a little underrated. Group 1 winner in NZ as a 3yo last season and her first-up run here was good when unsuited by the trip forced very wide on turn. That run will have improved her, she is better placed out to 1400m and just needs a bit of luck from widish draw to run well. Buffalo River is the undoubted horse to beat. He should control the speed here on a track where he is G1 placed at this distance. Just went too hard early in the Rupert Clarke last start but he was far from disgraced. This much easier and yet to miss a place second-up in his career. So Si Bon was good when resuming at Sandown last start and he will enjoy a cosy run from the inside draw. Riddle Me That will be fitter for his return and has claims.
Suggested bet: Kahma Lass each way.
How the race will be run: Sansom can lead this field from the rails draw with Lombardo likely to sit outside him. War Correspondent and Ocean Beyond will be handy Wisdom Of Water push forward.
My view: I want to give Regardsmaree another chance here. He just had zero luck in the G1 Rupert Clarke last start and you can forget he went around. He did have late market support that day too. He is coming back to 1200m but he likes this track and think is well drawn where he can settle back, stay out of trouble and unleash late. The speed should be genuine. Looks over the odds to me. Lombardo is a talent but very short in the market.
He has to carry 1.5kg more going from Bm84 to Listed grade and he’s never been Caulfield. Still, he was brilliant last start at The Valley. Sansom is better placed here and will make his own luck on speed. Pandemic is fitter and will be running on hard.
Suggested bet: Regardsmaree each way.
How the race will be run: Expect Shihonka and Forever And A Day to cross over from wide draws take up the running. New York Baby will be handy as will Star Waltz and Crystal Bound from the rails draw.
My view: With some speed on inside and outside, thinking Larkspur Run will be ridden a touch more quietly then last start the Valley when she was pushed hard early to settle in forward position and only just run down on the line. She was very good charging home late behind Zouzarella before that. She’s a big hope here. Crystal Bound was very good when resuming down the straight at Flemington and can only be further improved. Just has to get some luck from the inside barrier. Shihonka only won a maiden at Wyong last start but the style of the win was impressive and stable is flying at the moment. Decent Raine luckless at the Valley behind Seradess and Larkspur Run last start and will be running on again here.
Suggested bet: Larkspur Run to win.
How the race will be run: Dosh and Jigsaw look the main pace in race, with Savatoxl
Bella Nipotina very handy. Pace will be quick.
My view: Pretty keen on September Run. She got too far back at the Valley in the Moir two weeks back but still ran on strongly late. She produced fastest 600-400 of the whole meeting and was then held up in the straight. She is better placed this bigger track with a stack of speed on and she does like 1100m. Hard to hold out. Savatoxl is a Goodwood Hcp winner who has 4 out of 5 first-up and looked ready to perform with a strong recent jumpout effort. Bound to be in the finish again. Dosh is a very speedy filly who won’t know herself with 51kg on her back. She will probably lead and can take a lot of running down. Bella Nipotina is in rare form she goes well here. Big threat.
Suggested bet: September Run to win.
How the race will be run: No Effort will lead comfortably and dictate in front. Homesman Probabeel do the chasing Zaaki will just sit off pace.
My view: Hard to find any reason to suggest Zaaki will lose. It will only be bad luck that can beat him. He was imperious winning at Sandown and even better suited getting out to 2000m now.
Just wins. Probabeel chased him home at Sandown and fought hard and she’ll do the same here. Homesman is an Australian Cup winner fitter for his first-up defeat and goes well here. Nonconformist is right at his peak and also loves this track.
Suggested bet: Take Zaaki as the anchor in all exotics.
How the race will be run: Dirty Thoughts can cross from out wide to lead. Paul’s Regret will use inside alley to be handy along with La Mexicana.
My view: For a 1200m race, there doesn’t look to be an abundance of pace. Think La Mexicana can box seat from the rails draw and be very hard to beat. She is right at her top now, has a great record this distance and this track and handles all track conditions. Brooklyn Hustle is the class act drops back from
G1 Moir where nothing went right. Has the big weight but all the quality and will be steaming home. Chassis is so consistent and does seem to like this track. Rubisaki is resuming but she is too good to leave out.
Suggested bet: La Mexicana to win.
How the race will be run: Tiger Of Malay, Lightsaber, Mr Mozart and Zerelle handy.
My view: Know it’s a big field but pretty confident match in two with Anamoe and Artorius.
Just think they are better than the rest. Both will need some luck - Anamoe because he’s drawn very wide and Artorius because he’s drawn close to the rails. Hoping Anamoe either gets into a possie one off the fence or least races wide with cover. Then he can unleash in straight and I believe we will see him dominate. Artorius get back in the field but if he can find clear galloping room in the straight, then he will make a race of it with Anamoe. I have some time for Coastwatch and always thought 1600m would suit him. Lightsaber is a little underrated but he is a touch on-pacer.
Suggested bet: Anamoe to win.
How the race will be run: So You Assume should lead comfortably with Aysar and Second Slip doing the chasing. Tofane and Elephant will box seat off the speed.
My view: What a race. Can easily make a case of most of these. Superstorm will be tough to beat I reckon. It took two superstars to beat him at Sandown last start after he was so good beating Elephant at the Valley and that horse has since won impressively. Like the fact he’s coming back to 1600m here as the tempo should be solid and he will be the one charging home late. Suited with a bit of weight swing in his favour over Sierra Sue here. I’m Thunderstruck produced an amazing effort in the Rupert Clarke when he stormed home from last on the bend. He looks ideally suited going to 1600m and on the limit weight he will be hard to hold out. Tofane has to carry a weight record for a mare if she is win but she’s up the task. She was very good in Makybe Diva when only beaten a length by Incentivise. She gets the run of the race from this draw. Elephant is very honest and also drawn well. He will be in it for a long way.
Suggested bet: Superstorm to win.
How the race will be run: Fun Fact and Tooradin look the leaders, with Floating Artist likely to cross try to take a sit off the speed.
My view: Looks the perfect race for Delphi, who has just kept improving with every Aussie start. He was excellent here last start when he just failed to overhaul Nonconformist and he’s even better suited out the 2400m. Looks to get the run of race from this good draw and will prove awfully hard to beat. Floating Artist is the obvious threat. He has been superb last three appearances and way too good for his rivals at Sandown start. Drawn a little awkwardly here and that’s the only reason he probably doesn’t go on top here. Great chance. The Chosen One has his share of weight but he’s a class act and is a Caulfield Cup placegetter. Defibrillate will welcome the extra distance and is ready to win.
Suggested bet: Delphi to win.