The Sportsman Weekend

Profondo is a future star

Litt’s flashy colt can take the next step

- WITH SHAYNE O’CASS

RACE 1

How the race will be run: Big field, solid pace anticipate­d

The Favourites: Freedom Square has, for a third time in as many scheduled starts this preparatio­n, drawn wide barrier but at least this time, it’s the Randwick Mile so he should get his chance to unleash his powerful finish if they choose to ride him ‘back. Ditto and then some for frequent Highway participan­t So Say You.

The Roughies: Blaazay seems good odds for a horse with his record. Just needs to slot in somewhere save being trapped out three-wide. The Fossil was very impressive winning last start.

My View: Proven Class won a Highway on her way to a Country Classic placing this time last year. Gets a big tick for the firstup run.

The Bet: Proven Class to win.

RACE 2

How the race will be run: Guaranteed a fair tempo for all (in a full field)

The Favourites: No surprise to see the support on Wednesday for Different Strokes. This horse could win The Four Pillars if he runs up to expectatio­n tomorrow. Cream Rises, the son of More Strawberri­es, was terribly disappoint­ing first-up but surely has the talent to bounce back – albeit in a very strong Midway.

The Roughies: Divine Breath was $15 into $11 when betting got underway on Wednesday and rightly so too given for one, the esteem that he is held in at home, and two, his huge first-up run (note the splits).

My View: Conrad is the favourite for The Four Pillars on October 30 but don’t rule out his stablemate, Different Strokes, as a serious obstacle come the big day if (and hopefully when), he runs so well on the weekend.

The Bet: Different Strokes to win, Salsonic to place

RACE 3

How the race will be run: Achiever most likely; solid again

The Favourites: Solar Apex would have been worth $20 million easy if he won a Group 1 before now. He didn’t and so he was gelded but it has surely proved to be the right decision given that is unbeaten in his two runs since

operation. Herman Hesse is a Maker/Eustace import on hattrick. Hard to line up his Victorian form but his trainer’s do it for us – they know. Yiyi is a red-hot player.

The Roughies: Seems that Bazooka has worn most punters down; usually a pretty solid $6 or $8 shot, he went up $11 to win this owing to the fact that he just can’t

seem to strike that killer blow unless it is laid out for him on a platter.

My View: Solar Apex has been incredibly dominant in those two wins this prep. He might not be done with yet.

The Bet: Solar Apex to win, exacta 7 to beat 6

RACE 4

How the race will be run: Up in air here’ doesn’t look fast at all on paper but that could change. This is the tactical race of the day.

The Favourites: Coastwatch has Golden Rose form beating all bar In The Congo and Anamoe. The Waller gelding won the Ming Dynasty before that and was beaten a whisker first-up in Up And Coming. No wonder he is favourite. Brigantine is a player. I wonder if they lead on it – with Nash and all.

The Roughies: He might have been $51 ordinary in the Golden Rose, but Hilal was runner-up on both the Sires’ and Champagne to Anamoe Captivant respective­ly.

My View: The John O’Sheatraine­d Tavistock colt Cotehele arrives here off a Goulburn Bm64 win but what win. Don’t mistake this as a throw at the stumps, he was always coming here. One word – untapped.

The Bet: Cotehele to win

RACE 5

How the race will be run: Fast. All eyes on Paulele in the first bit.

The Favourites: is unbeaten in his three runs at the track, one of them was over this trip. The Godolphin chestnut absolutely zoomed home to finish a diminishin­g length a half behind Home Affairs in fast run Heritage Stakes immediatel­y after his close second to In The Congo in the San Domenico. Gleneagles is flying. I was going to say he underrated but perhaps not, given he put up equal second pick with the intriguing Te Akau colt, Sword Of State.

The Roughies: Tristate has a little, make that big, issue – on paper – with the barrier here but he is minor blowout chance, at best.

My View: Firstly, let me say again that Gleneagles is in ripping shape for the big Roman Consul test this weekend but at the end of day, it’s just so hard, nigh on impossible in fact, to look past Paulele on form.

The Bet: to win, exacta 2 beat 4

RACE 6

How the race will be run: Interestin­g pace scenario here (that is code for

I have no idea!).

The Favourites: Kiku may yet get a run in the Silver Eagle; whatever the case, one has to be impressed with her closing sixth in the Ellsberg race last Saturday. Deadly second-up too. Ace NZ mare Amarelinha was actually pretty good, very late anyway, behind Atishu in the Bill Ritchie. Was always going to be big improver coming out of that event.

The Roughies: More Prophets is her worst enemy in as much as pattern makes her very tempo and luck reliant. There is no doubt about her talent but she will need it all to go her way at this level of competitio­n.

My View: All Saints’ Eve is a 95 rater, second only to Amarelinha, and I thought she did enough second-up in the Shannon despite the fact that beat only one other home on day. Can peak her

The Bet: All Saints’ Eve eachway

RACE 7

How the race will be run: Solid and happy for all players.

The Favourites: Count De Rupee (see below). Ellsberg did a mighty job (so did Nash Rawiller) when he won at Rosehill from barrier so wide that I expected him to be scratched. That’s handy

know that he is not as one-dimensiona­l as some of us pegged him as.

The Roughies: Amish Boy has an impressive C.V having run in major races in three states. On top of that, the son of Star Witness was under three-lengths from the winner in the Group 1 Rupert Clarke last start. The barrier is not great (unlucky 13) but James McDonald is a key booking, especially for this stable.

My View: Not big ‘times’ person myself but it is worth noting that Count De Rupee went faster than Anamoe did when he won the Run To The Rose 40 minutes before Count De Rupee firstup down there (at home) at Kembla.

The Bet: Count De Rupee to win, exacta 8 to beat 4

RACE

How the race will be run: Never Been Kissed is the Waterhouse/Bott runner. Does she rack ‘em and stack ‘em? Again, a very difficult race to map from pace angle.

The Favourites: Profondo could still be a viable Cox Plate contender (he always has been IMO) but to take on Zaaki this early in his career, he would have to come out and win like Phar Lap tomorrow. Most agree that he beat himself in the Gloaming, just through inexperien­ce and nothing else. That said, one has to respect the horse who beat him that afternoon – Head Of State – but if Profondo has learned from his mistake, he beats him this time.

The Roughies: What a day it could be for the mare Baggy Green tomorrow. She’s got a daughter (Tofane) in the Toorak and a son (Benaud) here and he can surely get closer to Head Of State Profondo than did in the Gloaming bearing in mind he was off a Nowra maiden debut win.

My View: Having just said he’ll beat Zaaki in the Cox Plate (well, sort of), one can hardly not openly declare Profondo and let the cards fall as they may. Good exacta opportunit­y IMO; him Benaud.

The Bet: Profondo to win, exacta 2 to beat 4

RACE 9

How the race will be run: Solid throughout.

The Favourites: Great News is a bonny mare in every sense of the word. As good as her record is, imagine if she had of won instead of placing at three starts this prep namely the Toy Show, Mona Lisa and Tibbie. So honest and consistent, but this is a very Group 3 tomorrow.

The Roughies: It would take new P.B of sizeable proportion­s but you won’t find a horse at $201 that has as much talent as Shotgun Alli. Don’t laugh, this is the 35th anniversar­y of Abaridy in the Caulfield Guineas.

My View: If trials mean anything, I won’t hear of Minhaaj losing. The Rosemont mare has her first run for John O’Shea tomorrow and I can’t stress enough how well this clearly well-credential­ed mare has been trialling in her two heats which were both won by Everest winner and 2021 race favourite, Classique Legend.

The Bet: Minhaaj to win, exacta 5 to beat 9

RACE 10

How the race will be run: Fast – on paper, in full field (minus two that are already out).

Favourites: Very good support for an old friend here in On The Lead who I fondly remember as my Golden Slipper pick a few years back. He never made it to the race and was gelded before start of this preparatio­n which signals a horse that is on an upwards spiral. Marnix has no weight and smashing draw. Kinloch has a bit of an X-factor about him (see more below).

The Roughies: Leo would have made a worthy Kosciuszko horse for someone but it wasn’t to be. Here’s stat folks – three wins from four starts at the t/d.

My View: Kris Lees elected to save Kinloch from Wednesday race at Rosehill where he drew wide. The roll of the dice worked at least so far as barriers are concerned with son of I Am Invincible coming up with box two here.

The Bet: Kinloch to win, box trifecta 3,5,10,12

 ?? ?? Profondo (green cap) has a rematch with Head Of State (navy cap) at Randwick tomorrow.
Profondo (green cap) has a rematch with Head Of State (navy cap) at Randwick tomorrow.

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