The Sportsman Weekend
Chase is on the case
Apache clearly the one to beat
How the race will be run: Iolite (4) and Head On Up (5) should pair off up front and run some time.
The favourites: Iolite is firm at $4.00 after making a winning debut for the new stable last month at Sunny Coast and he was really impressive. Very quick off the mark but he was kept the fence the whole way and had them covered a long from home. Previous form was sound, and I can forgive his previous result on soft ground. Sharing the top line with him is Zingalong whose form is superior to Iolite’s by a fair margin. Mixed it with the better three-year-olds across last season culminating in a stakes placing behind Lord Olympus over the carnival. Looked need of hitout the other day in his trial and should be ready to produce a solid run fresh.
The roughies: Some place hopes among them but I think the winner will come from the top of the market.
My view: Zingalong’s formlines are a mile better than his rivals here, but he has drawn a tricky gate tomorrow which levels the playing field. I’m hoping he can slot in behind the lead pair and produce late and I’ll take the $4.00 on offer. I feel compelled to save Iolite who did look pretty good first-up and he wasn’t too far from Zingalong the last time they met. That relegates a talent like Pull Anchor back to the minors, but she does like hotly contested race and has the ability to finish over the top. All in all a super opener one that will produce a good formline heading into the future.
The bet: Good bet Zingalong ($4.00), saver-plus on Iolite at $4.00. Box Q/T 1,4,6.
How the race will be run: Palazzo Spirit looks as likely a candidate as any to lead and they never dawdle in these early 2yo races.
The favourite: I worked around Palazzo Spirit ($2.15) when he was lining up last weekend as had drawn poorly and I was expecting heavy conditions. Here just a week later he has drawn (4) in smaller event on top of the ground so connections have definitely had their patience rewarded. He looked good enough in his last trial to suggest he will jump to the lead and take running down.
The roughies: Mishani Mental will derive plenty of benefit from his debut run at Toowoomba and is one for multiples at $34.
My view: Palazzo Spirit has a lot more going for him tomorrow and the $2.15 might look good price at end.
The bet: Decent win only on Palazzo Spirit ($2.15).
How the race will be run: Not enough info to draw a map, but as always they’ll run it along.
The favourites: Shalook heads betting at $3.80 on the back of a reasonable trial outing at Doomben last month. She jumped well and travelled nicely throughout, it was a tidy effort but nothing out of the box and no better than that winner who she meets again here. The breeding doesn’t jump off the page at me and I’ll work around her tomorrow.
The roughies: Not much love for Possover out at $15 despite a handy debut Toowoomba. Strung up in traffic on the bend and battled on, she’s worth inclusion in the exotics.
My view: This is a race to go very quietly in but at the $4.60 I’m happy enough to follow Exo Lady. Nice trial win, and I did notice she found an extra gear when asked for something on straightening before being throttled down late. Drawn okay and as good as any for some interest.
The bet: Modest each way bet on Exo Lady ($4.60).
How the race will be run: Glorious Ruby led a higher pressure event last weekend and should get an easier lead tomorrow.
The favourites: Four runners within a point of each other here headed by Tiger Heart ($3.60) who hasn’t been sighted since disappointing in the Sires. Beat Subterranean at his second run before smashing Tutukaka over 1400m at the Sunny Coast so he may find 1000m a touch nippy, but he is very smart. The big firmer Fetch who is nicely bred by Sebring out of a half to two stakeswinners. Big winner on debut at Grafton against the older maideners in April, but time wasn’t overly flash for such a fast circuit. Gets back from the inside draw tomorrow and has been heavily supported in
$7 but this is a massive step up in class and any one of these would lap a Grafton maiden field. There is tremendous depth here all the way out to rank outsider Maximum Output who comes off a win at the Sunny Coast.
The roughies: I’m surprised Win Burn is unwanted out at $10, he ran well on debut behind You’ll Be Mist in unsuitable conditions, then was close-up to Queen Of Wizardry and beat home Ranch Hand. He comes off a trial win and will enjoy the speed.
My view: This is such a tough race but I’ve settled on Stellar Magic ($3.80). Worth noting for reference that first-up last prep she ran comparable time at Grafton to Fetch even though the track was soft, and she went on to place at stakes level in Dalrello behind Miss Hipstar. Tracks the speed and is as good as any, but it is very hard. I’ll definitely have something on Win Burn at $10, he’s the forgotten horse here and well over mark.
The bet: Cautious win only Stellar Magic ($3.80). Each way Win Burn ($10).
How the race will be run: Last start maiden winner Southern Stock could lead here, else Deep Sceiva controls the tempo to suit herself.
The favourites: Aswaat ($4.60) lines up again as favourite here and I must admit I’m warming to her. Nice run last time at the Gold Coast when shooting for hat-trick and is well placed again tomorrow but the lack of speed is a concern, as fact that her main rival will have a big head start on her on the bend.
The roughies: The market has it sewn up with six of the 10 under $10.
My view: Sticking with Deep Sceiva ($5.00) who dug deep to hold off Kubrick last time, but who are we kidding she was always going to beat him home. She carried 56.5kg last prep into the placings in the Princess Stakes so she should have no problems shouldering 57.5kg in this. She either controls the speed or shadows Southern Stock and will be hard to catch.
The bet: Strong each way bet on Deep Sceiva at $5.00.
How the race will be run: Tough map to construct, Dreamtimer looks an obvious choice to cross and lead but there are enough on-pacers drawn underneath him to make that a tough ask. Either way the speed should be on.
The favourites: They’ve piled onto Mister Larrabee and he has tumbled into $3.00 fave. Big run first-up sneaking up behind Rubiquitous in a slick 3yo race before taking the easy kill on his home track. Talented youngster who hugs rails here and with even luck will be hard to hold out.
The roughies: Dynamic Thinker ($19) has put together three solid runs and gets back onto firm footing tomorrow, drawn well will be handy when the pressure goes on. The Dark ($19) improved second-up and his lines around this grade when last in work were very good.
My view: I’m with Mister Larrabee here but I do think the $3 is getting perilously close to threshold of bad value, this is a pretty open race with several hopes. He may be destined for bigger things and should account for these if that’s true. Looks a good formline in the making.
bet: Win only Mister Larrabee ($3.00). Small saves to cover on The Dark ($19) and Dynamic Thinker ($23). Quaddie 2,5,6,10,11 /1,2,3,8 /1,2,3,4 /1,3,6,9.
How the race will be run: One of these two favourites will push issue early on and settle just ahead of the other at a standard clip.
The favourites: Apache Chase holds the top line at $2.25 after scoring a solid fresh win in the Weetwood fortnight ago. Not much joy over this c/d Stradbroke before that, but three runs ago he beat Ayrton and Amish Boy over the same c/d. He probably will lead Emerald Kingdom and they are likely to cross the line in that order.
The roughies: Best of them is Samurai who out at $19 gets a spot in the quaddie despite the stiff rise grade.
My view: The price differential between Emerald Kingdom and Apache Chase has kept growing since markets opened but at $2.25 is still the bet. I’ll include a couple of roughies in the Quaddie but it is likely to be fought out by the two at the top of betting.
The bet: Decent go on Apache Chase ($2.25).
How the race will be run: Navy Cross leads again at a standard tempo.
The favourites: Honorable Spirit ($2.40) looks awfully hard to beat here. He won three of his first four runs this season, then rattled home at Toowoomba in the Cup to beat all but Wapiti over 2000m. I don’t doubt he will run out a strong 2400m and the $2.40 looks more than fair.
The roughies: A whole bunch of these are just making up the numbers and the winner will come from top four.
My view: I’m happy to be on Honorable Spirit at the $2.40, he has raced through grades this prep. The only danger I can see is if the toppy He Runs Away produces his best form, but we’ve been waiting for that to happen for a while now.
The bet: Good go Honorable Spirit ($2.40).
How the race will be run: Ingear will lead and the presence of Full Nelson ensure it’s run at least at a standard speed.
The favourites: Ingear holds sway $2.40 after clinging on for a narrow win first-up here five weeks ago. She almost certainly finds the lead, but Full Nelson will take it up before he lets her lope along. She can win, but this is a very strong line-up for a Bm80 and she’ll be under siege over the last 100m.
The roughies: I don’t fancy either of roughies here.
My view: I’m taking the punt on Guntantes at a juicy $7.50. First-up last prep he was beaten an inch by Lashes and competed in much stronger grade than he strikes tomorrow. He comes off a trial win and with a decent tempo and fresh legs the 1200m is an ideal starting point for his spring prep. The favourite Ingear a big threat but there’s not enough value in the $2.40 to save on her so we’ll just include her in the quaddie.
The bet: Good each way bet on Guntantes at $7.50.