Trillion dollar exercise
The electric vehicle boom will not only cut greenhouse gas emissions, it will save Australia big bucks, writes Joe Hildebrand
AUSTRALIA could save almost half a trillion dollars in costs associated with pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and noise if it moved to 100 per cent electric vehicles over the next 15 years, a new report has found.
The study by accounting giant Deloitte Access Economics has attempted to quantify the costs associated with regular patrol and diesel powered vehicles – such as increased respiratory disease from pollution or the economic cost of carbon emissions – and measure it against the uptake of electric cars, buses and trucks.
The research, commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation, projected a total cost of $864.9 billion from 2022 to 2050, comprising $488 billion in costs from air pollution, $205 billion from greenhouse emissions, $95 billion from noise and $76 billion from water pollution.
Under the most bullish scenario, of 100 per cent electric vehicles by 2035, it predicted savings of $492 billion. Under the second most aggressive scenario, in which all states adopt NSW’s target of all government cars and buses to be electric by 2030 and with an overall net zero target of 2045, the savings would be $335 billion. Yet even under current federal and state government policies and targets for emissions reductions there would still be a projected saving of $232 billion.
“Transport is a significant contributor to Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, and we’re now at a real inflection point where we can realistically look at the benefits from a fast and complete transition to EVs in this country,” Deloitte partner and report author Dr Eamon McGinn said.
“The potential benefits for our economy of the marketled EV solution, in terms of less greenhouse gas emissions, less air and water pollution, and less vehicle noise are truly staggering – almost $500 billion over the next 30 years.”
The uptake of electric vehicles has been a political lightning rod in Australia ever since the 2019 election campaign when then opposition leader Bill Shorten announced a policy to make half of all new cars electric by 2030 – which Labor struggled to cost. Analysis at the time revealed the target could blow a $1 billion-a year hole in road funding within a decade – and five times that by 2039 – because of the shortfall in fuel excise revenue. Tellingly, the Deloitte analysis confirms this prospect and says it is a “critical” problem that needs to be addressed.
“With EVs set to become a ‘dealership mainstay’ over the next decade, this will result in less money to pay for transport investment,” the report says. “The need for Australian governments to reform funding models for transport infrastructure, particularly for ZEVs is therefore critical.”