$1m entry price for suburbs
Edge Hill, Craiglie tipped to be among hottest addresses in the region by 2028
Cairns could have three $1mplus suburbs by 2028, with one suburb on track to surpass tourist darling Palm Cove.
Analysis of housing trends provided by PropTrack reveals Edge Hill, which has a median dwelling (houses and units) price of $655,000 could hit $1.086m by 2028 – an increase of 66 per cent or $431,000.
Craiglie comes in second with potential growth of 54 per cent by 2028, with its median dwelling value poised to rise from $700,000 to $1.077m based on the past five years of growth.
In third place was Palm Cove, which is currently the second most expensive house suburb in the Cairns region behind Port Douglas, and the third most expensive unit suburb after Cairns City and Kewarra Beach.
Dwelling values in Palm Cove could rise 57 per cent over the next five years, lifting from $651,000 to $1.021m by 2028.
The median dwelling value in Port Douglas, which has a significant unit inventory, is tipped to increase by 56 per cent to a combined house and unit value of $667,000.
The current median house price in the tropical gem is $990,000, up 63.6 per cent in the past five years, according to the latest REA Market Trends report.
Even one of the region’s cheapest suburbs, Manoora, could see dwelling values lift by 26 per cent, according to the analysis.
But it is the relatively affordable suburb of Mossman that is tipped to record the biggest growth on current trends, with the median dwelling value there poised to rise 84 per cent, lifting it from $485,000 to $893,000 in the next five years.
However, PropTrack economist Paul Ryan said it was unlikely Queensland would experience the same growth rate recorded during the pandemic years – at least not across as many suburbs.
“The past five years have been quite extraordinary,” Mr Ryan said.
“2021 recorded the third fastest price growth Australia has seen since Federation.
“Part of the big driver of underlying home price growth over that period was low interest rates.”
He said it could be an opportunity for long-term investors to research where to invest to get the best capital growth though.
“In saying that, I think the data shows how much buying in the right location influences returns,” Mr Ryan said.
“You can see lifestyle locations performing really well.”
Colliers director of residential project marketing and sales Jon Rivera said factors such as infrastructure spending, immigration and the 2032 Olympic Games meant Queensland had the potential to outperform other states in the next five years.
Mr Rivera said there was no chance of prices going backwards given the level of investment in the state.
“You’ve got $94bn worth of key infrastructure projects being delivered in Queensland, soaring construction costs and a lack of new supply pushing prices up, plus population growth from migration and strong economic growth,” he said.
However, the Price Predictor Index for Autumn, compiled by Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder, revealed that the Cairns market had likely now reached its pandemic property boom peak, with only four suburbs recording rising sales activity.
Those suburbs included Kewarra Beach, Mooroobool, Bentley Park and Mount Peter.
Of the 26 suburbs surveyed, four suburbs were labelled “consistency” markets – Parramatta Park, Redlynch, Whiterock and Whitfield.
Sales activity in 14 suburbs had also “plateaued” since the previous quarter, while the number of sales declined in Cairns City, Edmonton, Trinity Beach and Caravonica.
Twomey Schriber Property Group agent Karl Latham said suburbs where values had been dormant for a decade were reaping the biggest rewards, with some of the suburbs previously avoided by buyers now coming into their own.
“Those suburbs (Manoora, Manunda and Mooroobool), they are a bit like Redfern (in Sydney) was 10 years ago,” Mr Latham said.
“No one would buy there but now the median house price is $1.5m.
“For many years, values didn’t move much at all in Cairns but its our time now.”
Mr Latham said migration to the region coupled with a tight rental market meant demand was high at a time when very little stock was on the market.
He said that while demand had dropped from the peak, with fewer groups through open homes, those that were in the market were “quality buyers”.
“There are around 470 properties on the market across the whole Cairns region, which is the lowest I have ever seen,” he said.
“Pre-Covid, there would be anything around 2500, so that serious lack of supply is holding up values.”