Regional appeal as medians soar
Queensland needs to rapidly increase its housing stock or boost the ceiling for firsthome buyers, with research showing just 60 of 626 suburbs could have a median dwelling price below $450,000 by 2028.
That harrowing figure means first-home buyers could be priced out of almost 90 per cent of Queensland suburbs based on the recent five-year trend in price growth, according to exclusive analysis by PropTrack.
Currently, first-home buyers pay no stamp duty on properties valued under $450,000, with the cost escalating with each dollar over that. For example, a property costing $550,000 will attract stamp duty of around $10,600, while a $600,000 property would cost an estimated $12,850.
The current median house price in the Brisbane and Gold Coast local government areas is $1m, while in Noosa it is $1.25m.
First-home buyers wanting to escape stamp duty are already priced out of 18 of Queensland’s 49 LGAs, according to the REA Market Trends report for May.
But when it comes to units, just five LGAs have median values above $450,000 – Noosa, Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, Brisbane and Redland.
PropTrack economist Angus Moore said while it was unlikely Queensland would experience the same growth rate recorded during the pandemic years, affordability was already a major issue.
“And it will only get worse if these trends continue, even at
a lesser rate,” he said.
“Interest rates are now substantially higher than they were five years ago, and borrowing capacity has slumped.
“The only long-term solution is to build more homes where people want to live.”
On the current five-year trend, first-home buyers could be forced out of the southeast, leaving a gaping hole in services like hospitality, tourism, and even essential services.
But the southeast corner’s loss could translate into a win for the regions where affordability is still a major drawcard. Should the current trend continue, Cairns would have eight suburbs with a median dwelling value (houses and units combined) below $450,000, including Manunda, Yorkeys Knob, Cairns North and Parramatta Park.
In Townsville, there would be 22 suburbs under $450,000 including Hermit Park, Pimlico, Railway Estate and Aitkenvale.
Mackay-Isaac-Whitsundays would have four suburbs, Central Queensland, 9, Darling Downs-Maranoa, 7, and Wide Bay, 1.
Greater Brisbane firsthome buyers stand a chance in just six suburbs, but units would likely be their only option.
However, they will have to kiss goodbye any dreams of a coastal lifestyle without paying any stamp duty on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast by 2028, with zero suburbs coming under the $450,000 threshold.
They will also be out of luck in Toowoomba, where the cheapest suburb by 2028 could be North Toowoomba with a median dwelling price of $513,000.
In an address to the National Press Club on Wednesday, Regional Australia Institute chief executive Liz Ritchie said demand for regional living was at “record highs”.
But she warned that “as a country, we are not prepared”, adding that migration from capital cities to regional areas remained 17 per cent higher than pre-Covid levels.
“Our latest research continues to show that one in five
Australians are considering a move to the regions,” she said.
“They are motivated by spiralling cost of living pressure, growing congestion, and a desire for more time, more space and more connection with community.
“And it’s Millennials, with young families, who see the greatest potential for career opportunities.
“A quick calculation of the one in five tells you that is 3.5 million people … not a small number.”
Ms Ritchie described housing as a “vexing issue”, noting the average house price in regional Australia rose 42 per cent between 2020 and 2022.
Herron Todd White chief executive Gary Brinkworth, in the company’s latest Month in Review report for May, said price declines following the boom appeared to have eased.
He added that the peak-totrough fall was “extremely mild” compared to the increase in values during the
boom.
“Acquiring property now – be it a home or investment – with a view to holding for the long term could be a savvy decision, subject to the nuances of the location and property itself,” he said.
“This is particularly so for buyers of lower-priced real estate in desirable locations.”
Propertyology founder Simon Pressley said housing affordability was an issue “pretty much everywhere”.
But he said it was not as simple as supply and demand, adding that raising a deposit, lending criteria, repayments, government charges and other factors played their parts.
“Construction won’t happen unless the developer has confidence that there will be a buyer,” he said.
“What we need to be considering is what policies need to be implemented to boost buyer confidence.The rest will take care of itself.”
“Our latest research continues to show that 1 in 5 Australians are considering a move to the regions Liz Ritchie Regional Australia Institute CEO