IS IT BOLLOCKS?

Film Buff investigates the facts behind outlandish movie plots.

Could Day After Tomorrowtype weather really strike?

THIS MONTH THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW’S EXTREME WEATHER q

In The Day After Tomorrow, climate change causes half the Earth to suddenly freeze over, and sea levels rise by several metres in a matter of seconds. Does this make any sense?

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RICHARD BETTS, MET OFFICE HADLEY CENTRE AND UNIVERSITY OF EXETER Climate change is real and already showing its effects, but a sudden global freezing is not on the cards. We humans are warming the global climate by increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere – which, surprisingly, could cause some places to get colder – but the crazy scenarios of the movie would not occur.

Local cooling could theoretically happen if the Gulf Stream was to shut down. The climate of Western Europe is currently kept warm by water from the Caribbean being drawn northwards by the sinking of salty water in the North Atlantic, so as the Greenland ice sheet melts due to global warming, the release of fresh water into the North Atlantic could (in theory) stop the sinking motion and shut off the Gulf Stream. The loss of this warming influence would then make Western European winters as cold as Eastern Europe.

However, the film’s mega-storms sucking down hyper-cold air from above is just made up – it’s not based on real science. Also, sea level rises happen because of warming causing melting ice and expanding ocean waters, so a global sea level rise in an ice age would not make sense. A shutdown of the Gulf Stream, however, would be expected to produce a local sea level rise in the North Atlantic, but nowhere near as fast or high as in the movie. Climate change does pose real risks of sea level rise and disrupted weather patterns, but not as depicted here.

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