COVID-19 end game

AT THE onset of the coronavirus outbreak in Australia, there emerged outbreak containment options that oscillated from complete eradication to flattening the curve.

Subsequently, considerable confusion ensued over which policy the Government was pursuing with the eventual outcome seeming to be a focus on eradication.

Clearly the lockdown on controlling the outbreak in Australia has been effective, but we have to ask at what economic and social cost?

This is not a choice between “saving lives” and “saving the economy”, rather finding the correct balance between them.

As we transition from lockdown, there are three facts to consider that don’t seem to have figured in any government strategy or road map.

Fact one: A vaccine will not end the outbreak.

Even if a viable vaccine is discovered soon, a significant issue is production capacity.

A more practical option is a limited number of people identified as high risk will get vaccinated based on availability of supply.

Fact two: Treatment protocols are improving rapidly and resources can be focused on that part of the population that needs hospitalisation and intensive care, recognising that most of the population will be treated at home with mild to medium symptoms.

Fact three: Lockdowns are effective only for a limited time. But there are two issues – asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers are difficult to trace, and the outbreak is global and at various stages of progression.

When a vaccine is in limited supply and a resurgence of infections is certain, it becomes clear that we have to live with the virus as we live with other infectious diseases.

So what should we do? Protect as many as we can without destroying the economy and the social fabric.

Doctors and governments need to wake up from their tunnel vision of a virus-free world and speedily move to economic and social recovery by ending the lockdown quickly and keeping the curve flattened to match hospital and ICU capacity. This approach is the only viable end game.

CAREY RAMM, Principal economist with

AEC Group.