Mine a vote winner Thompson ignored polls that got result wrong
IT is no secret the 2019 federal election opinion polls got it wrong.
Every poll across the country touted Labor as the winner. But on election night, as the results began to trickle in, a different story dominated the headlines as the Liberal National Party swept to victory.
This comes as an interim report released this week explored the accuracy of opinion polling for 2019 federal election.
The LNP’S support of the Adani Carmichael Coal Mine swayed thousands of voters, especially in North Queensland.
Townsville, which was still reeling from the fallout of the Queensland Nickel debacle, voted for the party that backed a company that pledged to create jobs in the region.
While the then-labor member Cathy O’toole supported the mine if it stacked up environmentally, there was an air of uncertainty and suspicion about the party on a national level and the election result proved it.
In Rockhampton Russell Robertson, a coal miner from Clermont, also couldn’t get Labor across the line.
In the lead-up to the election, the Townsville Bulletin, with sister publications Mackay Daily Mercury and the Rockhampton Morning Bulletin, published an open letter to Labor on the front page, asking the party to put its support behind the project.
But the opinion polls were still calling it a Labor government right up until the final hour.
After the election, the Association of Market and Social Research Organisations reviewed why the polling got it so wrong and released its interim report this week.
Polling inquiry panel chairman Darren Pennay said despite pollsters, media organisations and others that commissioned election and political polling, there had been no consensus about what went wrong.
“The reputation of opinion polling with the Australian public appears to be at a low ebb,” Mr Pennay said.
“Election and political polling have an important place in Australian society, and it is imperative that the broader polling industry takes this opportunity to improve the accuracy and reporting of the polls because it underpins a modern, well-functioning democracy.
“It’s also important for the credibility of the polling companies, as well as the wider market and social research industry, that the public has confidence in the results of the major polls.”
During the 2019 federal election, Herbert MP Phillip Thompson said the opinion polls often predicted he would lose. He said while media outlets reported he was neck-andneck with Ms O’toole, most predicted he would lose.
Mr Thompson said he had a plan to win the election and he stuck to it, trying to ignore opinion polls.
“The polling that matters is on polling (election) day,” he said. “Opinion polls are done with a small group extrapolated across the nation.
“I think you should be focusing on doing the hard work and the right thing every day, not sitting down and hoping you’re up in the polls.”
But Mr Thompson said not everyone was engaged with politics.
Mr Thompson said the reliance on the opinion polling was an issue at the last election because the polls were so heavily relied on.
“I know that people who do the polls are now being more careful because they got it so wrong,” he said.
The full report into opinion polling in the 2019 federal election is set to be released in October.