REGION’S KEY ROLE IN S TATE ELECTION POWER PLAY FOR NORTH
NORTH QUEENSLAND VOTERS ARE TIPPED TO HAVE A BIG SAY WHEN IT COMES TO DECIDING WHICH OF THE MAJOR PARTIES IS ABLE TO FORM GOVERNMENT AFTER THE STATE ELECTION IN OCTOBER. A NUMBER OF SEATS ARE UP FOR GRABS AND THE LNP NEEDS TO DO WELL HERE TO CONSIGN THE LABOR GOVERNMENT TO DEFEAT ACCORDING TO THE EXPERTS, WRITES
AN increasing concentration of people – and seats in the Queensland parliament – in the state’s southeast corner makes people in regional Queensland distrustful of major parties.
There is almost an ingrained sense that we always miss out.
But political analysts say the fate of the looming state election – due in October – still rests to a large extent on the outcome of contests in a maverick North Queensland.
Former Labor minister and now an adjunct associate professor at Brisbane’s Queensland University of Technology John Mickel says the chances of the LNP winning enough seats to take the reins of government hinges on the voters of North Queensland.
Townsville-based James Cook University political scientist Dr Maxine Newlands to some extent agrees but adds that Labor also has a job on its hands winning the traditional support it has enjoyed in the North.
Prof Mickel says that the political terrain in North Queensland – and what he calls Far North Queensland, which is based on
Cairns – presents a major challenge to the LNP. He says the LNP will be hugely reliant on preferences – voters’ choices on the ballot paper other than their primary or number one pick.
“Of the 14 seats, seven are straight contests between the LNP and the Labor government – Barron River, Cairns, Mulgrave, Mundingburra, Townsville, Burdekin and Mackay – although Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has polled well in Mackay before and held Mulgrave in the 1990s,” Prof Mickel said.
“The LNP runs third in Mirani, where it’s a contest between Labor and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party.
“Elsewhere, the LNP is behind in three-cornered contests in Thuringowa and Cook between Labor, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party.
“Robbie Katter has the safest seat in the Queensland parliament in Traeger, and Shane Knuth has the third safest seat on two-party preferred in Hill.
“Labor runs fourth in Hinchinbrook and Hill where the LNP and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation are in a contest with Katter’s Australian Party.”
Prof Mickel said that the LNP also faced an added impediment with the seat of Whitsunday.
“Former LNP MP Jason Costigan, leading his new North Queensland First Party, will contest the marginal seat of Whitsunday against the LNP and Labor,” he said.
“His party will also string of other seats Queensland, creating contest a in North another
c complication to the e equation for the LNP.
“And just to add to the chall lenge, two of the 14 members – Hinchinbrook and Mirani – are first-term members seeking ree election. Historically, a first-term member facing re-election who has worked hard receives a bounce in their support making them harder to dislodge, especially when they win election under minor party banners.
“While Shane Knuth is not a new member, his electorate was so substantially redrawn in the 2017 redistribution that for much of the e electorate he will be the new member consolidating his support. He also has the advantage that all of Hill is under the federal seat of Kennedy, held by Bob Katter.
“The LNP must win the historically change-of-government seats of Barron River, Whitsunday, and Mundingburra to have a shot of winning government.
“With the LNP needing to win nine seats to form government, they must navigate a narrow path through the minefield of preference flows from Katter’s Australian Party, Pauline Hanson’s One Na
preference
tion and North Queensland First in battleground North Queensland seats to win in October.”
Dr Newlands says that there was always a sense people in North Queensland felt forgotten by the major parties because of the concentration of MPS based in the southeast.
It is a north versus south, region versus city separatist approach and people tend to favour the minor parties as a result.
“I think Labor has a bit a of job to do in getting the regions back on board,” she says.
She believes tackling crime and the delivery of jobs will figure prominently.
Dr Newlands says locally the LNP will be looking for gains in the seats of Thuringowa and Townsville.
“If the LNP are going to focus on crime that will make Thuringowa vulnerable,” Dr Newlands says.
She says the LNP should do well in the seat of Townsville because of the predominance of conservative or business voters and the continuing pain of empty buildings in the CBD.
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