Townsville Bulletin

Suburbs tipped to flood

- LEIGHTON SMITH

SEVERAL of Townsville’s suburbs will be inundated by high tides in the year 2100, according to scientific modelling of climate change released this week.

Based on the Intergover­nmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) dire report on the state of Earth’s climate, Coastal Risk Australia website features an interactiv­e mapping tool revealing how Earth’s melting ice sheets could inundate Australia’s coastline.

A 0.84m rise in the sea level would lead to a high-tide inundation of properties in Oonoonba, Hermit Park, Pimlico, Railway Estate, South Townsville, Rowes Bay and Saunders Beach.

Townsville Airport’s runway and Pallarenda would be surrounded by water and a boat would be required to access the Fairfield Central Shopping Centre.

The Coastal Risk Australia website was developed in partnershi­p between NGIS Australia, and Frontiersi.

Cquniversi­ty Adjunct Professor of Environmen­tal

Geography in the Research Division Steve Turton said the 0.84m sea rise scenario was a “conservati­ve midpoint”, but cautioned that the mapped inundation areas would be much greater during cyclone storm surges and river flooding, with both expected to be more intense in the future.

Professor Turton said seas could rise by more than a metre by 2100 if more wasn’t done over the next three decades to reduce emissions.

Between 1901 and 2018, he said the global mean sea level increased by 20cm.

After initially being driven by thermal expansion of the ocean, the rising sea level was now being largely driven by melting land glaciers and ice sheets, he said.

“If we exceed the upper Paris Agreement target (2C above pre-industrial levels), we will enter a pathway where climate extremes, such as droughts and floods would be more common,” he said.

“A one-in-50-year event may revert to being a onein-20-year event and so on.”

He warned that the approachin­g crisis would be keenly felt by future generation­s and local councils and it’s our responsibi­lity to take the necessary steps now to prevent dangerous climate change from happening.

“In the longer term, it would be cheaper to retreat from the coast than build seawalls for every coastal city and town, but that would come with considerab­le social costs,” he said.

“Local government­s will feel the brunt of climate change, they really should be declaring climate emergencie­s now to bring their residents on board to prepare for a very different future,” he said. Australia’s ongoing disagreeme­nt over climate policy could have economic implicatio­ns, including carbon tariff imposition by other countries.

“In most developed countries, climate change action is treated as a bipartisan issue, with agreed carbon emission targets that align with net zero emissions by 2050,” he said.

“On our current trajectory, there is no evidence that Australia will reach net zero emissions by 2050.”

For more informatio­n, visit www.coastalris­k.com.au

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