MODELLING SHOWS 100 COVID DEATHS

QUEENSLAND’S inevitable Covid-19 outbreak will hit like a “slow burn, not a fire”, according to the scientist behind the modelling guiding the state’s road map out of the pandemic, with more than a 100 people expected to die within the first three months.

How quickly the state’s hospital system hits peak stress levels will depend in part on how many regional Queenslanders roll up their sleeves and get the jab.

The newly released modelling, prepared by the QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, found Queensland could reasonably expect between 1000 and 2000 Covid-19 infections in the first 90 days of the state opening up. There would also be between 250 and 500 people who needed to be cared for in intensive care, with 100 to 150 of those people — a majority of them older than 65 — likely to succumb to Covid-19.

QIMR Berghofer associate professor James Roberts, who led the Covid-19 modelling team, said the peak of Queensland’s outbreak was projected to hit in August 2022. He said the outbreak would resemble a “slow burn, not a fire” because of high vaccination rates.

According to the modelling, Queensland’s hospital and intensive care resources would come under “severe pressure” but not “catastrophically so”.