US and NATO’S ‘mistake’ punished
THE Russian invasion of Ukraine has thrown global geopolitics into question and raised fears about an expanding war in Europe.
In part this is a function of no one knowing exactly what Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to achieve, nor how events on the ground in Ukraine are going to play out. Nevertheless we need to go beyond empty moralising and think medium term about this crisis if we are to avoid any repetition.
The US and NATO have to decide whether they want to punish Russia or address the basic problem at the heart of the conflict.
The initial reaction was one of punishment, principally in the form of sanctions and the further provision of aid to Ukraine. Neither is likely to have much effect, mainly because Western imposition of meaningful sanctions would involve inflicting damage on their own economies.
Some have said that the basic problem at the heart of the conflict is Putin himself and his dismissive attitude to Ukraine’s existence as an independent state. This view was clearly expressed in his speech on the eve of the invasion when he ridiculed the idea of Ukraine as a separate, independent state. If this is the root cause, it cannot be addressed by the West.
Putin set out the basic issues he wanted discussed: a ban on Ukraine joining NATO and the removal of NATO forces from near Russia’s border. This was immediately rejected by US President Joe Biden and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
To reject your opponent’s basic demands before negotiations begin does not seem likely to produce a profitable outcome.