Cost of living bites
ALP a chance to win Leichhardt but LNP safe in Herbert
LABOR is tapping into what North Queenslanders are thinking when it comes to cost of living pressures, a Townsville-based political scientist has revealed, but it may not be enough to get it over the line in Herbert.
However, James Cook University’s Maxine Newlands believes Leichhardt may fall the other way, with Labor’s Elida Faith winning over long-term MP Warren Entsch.
Dr Newlands said in the Far North seat there was a less than 1 per cent swing towards the LNP in the last election and there was a chance it could change hands on May 21.
“It will break tradition that people in North Queensland and Central Queensland tend to vote Liberal – that gives you an indication that the landscape is shifting,” she said.
“It could be because people are getting older, we know from recent studies that women will tend to vote Labor more as they get older and it could come down to demographics.”
However the current YouGov polling does show the LNP in the lead with 41 per cent of the vote.
In Herbert, a Labor win would be down to the national vote, Dr Newlands said.
“That is nothing against the local candidate – I think when Cathy (O’toole) ran and won the seat, she was a lot more well-known … through the schools, through her sisters, families and through previous elections,” she said.
“If Labor win Herbert it will be more of a reflection of the national sense, rather than the local sense, and it will be nationally and locally they are talking about cost of living, more so than say military.”
Yougov results, released earlier this week, show sitting Herbert MP Phillip Thompson winning with 56 per cent of the vote.
At the last election, Mr Thompson secured an 8.38 per cent swing against Labor.
Mr Thompson has said he was not focusing on polling done during the election period but the votes come election day.
Labor’s John Ring did not respond to a request for comment.
“It will probably be a bit tighter (this election) than people are expecting,” Dr Newlands said.
There has been a distinct difference in election funding targets for the two parties, with Mr Thompson promising funds for many, smaller projects, while Mr Ring has hit the major projects like the Lansdown Eco-industrial Precinct.
Dr Newlands said this could work in the LNP’S favour, and reinforces the view that the party knows what was needed locally. “It’s about lots and lots of small to make a bigger picture, as opposed to big announcements on one or two projects,” she said.
“It might be seen as not really connecting with people on the ground who are those smaller and medium-sized businesses.”
Dr Newlands added that many of the minor parties in the North were on the “right” of the political spectrum, so the preferences would generally flow to the LNP.
“That will probably help them, as it‘s done in the past.”