NEW SHOCK HOME PRICE FORECASTS
MEDIAN house prices in parts of South East Qld will be among the highest levels in the country by 2030, exceeding $2m and beating even Greater Sydney, shock new growth analysis has found.
Meanwhile, in Townsville, experts believe that house prices will rise a little bit, and with investors keen on the property market in the North.
A continued surge in interstate migration and large infrastructure spending ahead of the 2032 Olympics are expected to propel over half the houses into milliondollar territory across a 32,000sq m stretch from Noosa to Brisbane to the Gold Coast, an exclusive report by real estate experts PRD has found.
Projections based on average annual returns in the
past 10 years put the highest median house price in Qld come 2030 in Noosa Shire which would hit an astounding $2.724m, followed closely by the Gold Coast on $2.669m – both of which would then be more unaffordable than Greater Sydney ($2.45m) and Greater Melbourne ($2.047m). Brisbane was expected to be significantly more affordable than the coastal markets, with a median house price of $1.749m as its median house two years before the Olympics.
PRD chief economist and report author Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo said the results spoke volumes about real estate market resilience when facing shocks like the Covid-19 pandemic, international migration thinning and even economic uncertainty.
Dr Mardiasmo expected the relative affordability of South East Qld to continue to push interstate migrants north ahead of the Olympics, with Greater Melbourne showing similar 10-year growth as Brisbane (6.7 per cent and 6 per cent respectively). She said the Qld capital was significantly cheaper “which highlights which capital city gives you more ‘bang for buck’.”
All up, the councils across Greater Brisbane were expected to see the capital region hit the million-dollar median level come 2029 at $1.04m, teetering into $1.1m by 2030.
House prices in Cairns are expected to hit current Brisbane pricing come 2030 off its 4.3 per cent 10-year growth rate, with the median set to be $756,343 two years before the
Olympics. Based on its current 10-year growth rate of 0.9 per cent, Townsville was expected to see its median house price sit just $28,000 more than its present $400,000 level come 2030. But experts believe that 10-year rate may be in for a surprise over coming years given the surge in investor interest in the property market there.
Proptrack data for the past eight years showed Brisbane house prices rose 74.2 per cent while the Gold Coast was up 96.3 per cent. Proptrack head of research Cameron Kusher said if that was used to look for
ward, the median house value in Brisbane in October 2030 would be $1,435,200 with the Gold Coast at $2,046,200, though there were multiple variables that could impact that in
cluding interest rates, tight rental markets and slower economic growth.
“Overall, we expect growth (in SEQ prices) to be slower over the next eight years, particularly so for houses in Brisbane and the Gold Coast and units on the Gold Coast. Units in Brisbane may potentially rise in value by more than they did over the past eight years due to their relative affordability, desirable inner locations (in most instances) and their attractiveness to investors, with the rental market tightness expected to persist over the coming years.”
Brisbane agent Tristan Rowland of Stone Real Estate expects price spikes to continue for houses, pushing most first home buyers to townhouses and units.
“By 2030 you will not see anybody buy a house as a first homebuyer unless they’ve inherited money … Last year was a prelude to bigger things to come, people are cashing in their chips and moving to Qld. If everyone thinks the worst is over, they will get a shock when those buyers move up there.”
He said the allure was strong when clients were selling for $8m in San Souci, Sydney, and buying in Brisbane’s north for $932,000.
“The price they’re paying here is not even 15 per cent of what they sold for.”
Buyersbuyers co-founder Pete Wargent said “it’s not impossible” for parts of SEQ to hit higher medians than that of Greater Sydney as a whole – though he added “it’s not really comparing like with like”.