MARKET REVIEW
JAPANESE MOVERS AND SHAKERS
IT IS 25 YEARS since the first Unique Cars Value Guide was published and more than 35 years since I began following movements in the market for interesting motor vehicles.
That time-frame has encompassed some monumental events including the 1987 ‘Black Monday’ stock market crash, the 1990s recession that dragged on for years and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. All of those events came with unpredicted and unpredictable consequences yet none brought the confusion and contradictory signals that have accompanied the onset of ‘Coronavirus’.
You will notice while leafing through this Guide some inconsistencies between segments of commentary and the Value Charts. The Market Review section, written during the early weeks of 2020, ref lects the 2019 market for Japanese models and bases any conclusions on an expectation that those conditions would persist.
As circumstances began to rapidly change it became necessary to look again at sales and availability of indicative models. This occurred during early April and resulted in charts that are as relevant as they possibly can be to current and projected market movements.
From the outset it was obvious that new car sales would be the worst affected and where recovery could take years. With factories closed indefinitely and parts unavailable, some vulnerable brands may not return at all.
As occurred following the 1987 ‘crash’, new and late-model prestige models will suffer a significant hit before demand rebounds. If the 1987-89 trends are repeated for high-value collectable models, this segment will enjoy heightened demand as scarce vehicles reach the market. However the current situation is so unpredictable that nothing is certain.
Looking specifically at the Japanese segment, March
2020 brought an inf lux of low-cost, often unrestored cars or abandoned ‘projects’ to the market. Sales were strong as well, with vendors generally realistic on price and accepting sensible offers where on-line auction platforms were used.
Some possibly viewed the old car in the shed as a source of immediate cash in tough times. Also, some sales may have occurred as a result of reality checks and the admission that your etch-primed money pit was never getting back on the road unless it was sold.
Fortunately, not everyone who is active in the collector car market will suffer hardship during these tough times. For those still working and feeling financially confident the temptation to secure a bargain will remain strong.
In the longer term, change will be unavoidable and sustained. However the current circumstances may not bring news that is all bad for specialist vehicles and the people who admire them
The crisis and strategies to prevent its recurrence will likely create a more cautious and insular society. Rather than moving towards a world where there is less dependence on personal transport we are likely to see greater demand for private vehicles. These will allow owners the freedom to travel alone or at least be accompanied only by people whose state of health should not be a threat to their own.