Global beef re­port

Warwick Daily News - South West Queensland Rural Weekly - - World Market - Ni­cola Bell

PRES­SURE is build­ing in some of the world’s ma­jor beef mar­kets, which could af­fect Aus­tralian trade.

Weather con­di­tions in the US, low protein prices in Brazil and changes to live cat­tle and buf­falo meat trad­ing in Asia could change the course of the global mar­ket, ac­cord­ing to the lat­est Global Beef Quar­terly re­port.

Rabobank se­nior an­i­mal protein an­a­lyst An­gus Gi­d­ley-Baird said dry weather con­di­tions were dis­rupt­ing the US beef mar­ket, with beef cow slaugh­ter num­bers track­ing

10 per cent higher for this year com­pared with last year.

“That means there is more do­mes­tic lean prod­uct in the US, which will soften the de­mand for Aus­tralia’s prod­uct,” Mr Gi­d­ley-Baird said.

While the US fore­cast of

5 per cent pro­duc­tion growth for the year is still on track, he said higher feed costs could limit the car­cass weight in­creases.

“There are a num­ber of sce­nar­ios that could play out in the US mar­ket that could have a bear­ing on the way the Aus­tralian mar­ket shapes up,” Mr Gi­d­ley-Baird said.

An­other fac­tor that could af­fect Aus­tralia was the Brazil­ian mar­ket hav­ing a large sup­ply of an­i­mal protein be­cause of is­sues with pork and poul­try ex­ports.

“This has put pres­sure on Brazil’s do­mes­tic beef prices, so it might push more beef onto the global mar­ket, so we could have more com­pe­ti­tion in the China mar­ket,” he said.

Con­tin­u­ing dry con­di­tions meant pro­ducer de­mand for cat­tle had eased and beef cat­tle prices were more heav­ily re­liant on global fac­tors.

“Cat­tle prices have come back, but de­spite in­creased vol­umes on the mar­ket they have sta­bilised in re­cent weeks,” Mr Gi­d­ley-Baird said.

Mer­cado mar­ket an­a­lyst An­gus Brown said the mar­ket had found a base for the prime slaugh­ter-ready cat­tle and those prices had sta­bilised, but store and young cat­tle were a bit more volatile be­cause of dry weather and “no real re­stocker” de­mand.

“I think the prime mar­ket will hold up but the store mar­ket might bounce if there is rain,” Mr Brown said.

While an­a­lysts were ex­pect­ing slightly higher cat­tle slaugh­ter this year, Mr Brown said it was “slightly higher than first thought” be­cause the dry weather brought more cows and young cat­tle onto the mar­ket.

Na­tional cat­tle slaugh­ter num­bers for the year to March were 1.79 mil­lion, up 6 per cent.

❝Cat­tle

prices have come back, but de­spite in­creased vol­umes on the mar­ket they have sta­bilised in re­cent weeks.

— An­gus Gi­d­ley-Baird

PHOTO: MADE­LINE GRACE

GLOBAL TRADE: Weather con­di­tions in the US, low protein prices in Brazil and changes to live cat­tle and buf­falo meat trad­ing in Asia could change the course of the global mar­ket.

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