Wheat leads exports
EXPORTS have picked up in
Q2 after a muted start to the year. While barley showed early strength on a proportional basis, exports have since been pegged back to ensure wheat is not threatened as the export leader.
Canola exports have all but finished going into June as European crushes begin sourcing new crop seed from the northern hemisphere following their normal summer shutdown.
Meanwhile, sorghum exports have been scarce with less than 100kMT hitting Australian stem to date.
Western Australia exports continue to make the bulk of shipments with close at least
1.2MMT of cereal shipped per month since March. May was a particularly strong month with over 860kMT on the stem for wheat alone in Western Australia.
Oat and lupin shipments also feature on the Western Australia shipping line-up with around 50kMT combined shipped per month out of West Australian ports.
South Australia shipments have slipped lower slightly from April.
Interestingly enough, barley continues to dominate the shipping stem in the state with more than 250KMT for each month of May and June. Port Lincoln has so far shipped around 1.4MMT, a testament to their salvaged production prospects from last season.
Exports out of Victoria continue to lag just behind, with 2.1MMT so far on the stem (vs. 2.4MMT average). Compared with other states, barley is over-weighted in this state, comprising over
850kMT of the state’s exports to date. However, volumes as a whole for the state have been on the decline, with April the peak month.
New South Wales and Queensland bulk exports remain few and far between, a function of the depressed
2017 crop as well as insatiable feed demand up and down the east coast.
The slow exports are not just a function of the poor winter crop, with the sorghum program under-performing so far.
It is early in the cropping season with planting still left to be done, but, one cannot help to draw parallels between this year’s crop potential and last year, where a modestly good year for Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria helped somewhat against the poor east coast crop.
While Western Australia and South Australia benefitted from a recent bout of rain, the same cannot be said for Queensland and much of New South Wales.
Early planting reports have been less than favourable, and whilst yield potential is largely decided through Q3, BOM’s latest long-range outlooks are less than favourable for the east coast.
All of this combined implies – but does not guarantee – another below average export year on the horizon for New South Wales.
EXPORT OUTLOOK: After a strong start, barley exports have fallen back.