Wheat leads ex­ports

Warwick Daily News - South West Queensland Rural Weekly - - Rural Weekly - Dim Ariyas­inghe COFCO In­ter­na­tional

EX­PORTS have picked up in

Q2 af­ter a muted start to the year. While bar­ley showed early strength on a pro­por­tional ba­sis, ex­ports have since been pegged back to en­sure wheat is not threat­ened as the ex­port leader.

Canola ex­ports have all but fin­ished go­ing into June as Euro­pean crushes be­gin sourc­ing new crop seed from the north­ern hemi­sphere fol­low­ing their nor­mal sum­mer shut­down.

Mean­while, sorghum ex­ports have been scarce with less than 100kMT hit­ting Aus­tralian stem to date.

West­ern Aus­tralia ex­ports con­tinue to make the bulk of ship­ments with close at least

1.2MMT of ce­real shipped per month since March. May was a par­tic­u­larly strong month with over 860kMT on the stem for wheat alone in West­ern Aus­tralia.

Oat and lupin ship­ments also fea­ture on the West­ern Aus­tralia ship­ping line-up with around 50kMT com­bined shipped per month out of West Aus­tralian ports.

South Aus­tralia ship­ments have slipped lower slightly from April.

In­ter­est­ingly enough, bar­ley con­tin­ues to dom­i­nate the ship­ping stem in the state with more than 250KMT for each month of May and June. Port Lin­coln has so far shipped around 1.4MMT, a tes­ta­ment to their sal­vaged pro­duc­tion prospects from last sea­son.

Ex­ports out of Vic­to­ria con­tinue to lag just be­hind, with 2.1MMT so far on the stem (vs. 2.4MMT av­er­age). Com­pared with other states, bar­ley is over-weighted in this state, com­pris­ing over

850kMT of the state’s ex­ports to date. How­ever, vol­umes as a whole for the state have been on the de­cline, with April the peak month.

New South Wales and Queens­land bulk ex­ports re­main few and far be­tween, a func­tion of the de­pressed

2017 crop as well as in­sa­tiable feed de­mand up and down the east coast.

The slow ex­ports are not just a func­tion of the poor win­ter crop, with the sorghum pro­gram un­der-per­form­ing so far.

It is early in the crop­ping sea­son with plant­ing still left to be done, but, one can­not help to draw par­al­lels be­tween this year’s crop po­ten­tial and last year, where a mod­estly good year for West­ern Aus­tralia, South Aus­tralia and Vic­to­ria helped some­what against the poor east coast crop.

While West­ern Aus­tralia and South Aus­tralia ben­e­fit­ted from a re­cent bout of rain, the same can­not be said for Queens­land and much of New South Wales.

Early plant­ing re­ports have been less than favourable, and whilst yield po­ten­tial is largely de­cided through Q3, BOM’s lat­est long-range out­looks are less than favourable for the east coast.

All of this com­bined im­plies – but does not guar­an­tee – an­other be­low av­er­age ex­port year on the hori­zon for New South Wales.

PHOTO: JAMIE BROWN

EX­PORT OUT­LOOK: Af­ter a strong start, bar­ley ex­ports have fallen back.

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