It’ll be a tale of two cities when voting closes here

TWO stories will unfold on the Gold Coast after voting closes today at 6pm. One is easy to tell, the other more difficult.

By 7.30pm Fadden LNP MP Stuart Robert, who enjoys a margin of 11 per cent, will be smiling after securing almost 50 per cent of the vote. Likewise the LNP’s Karen Andrews in McPherson.

Angie Bell, in the central Coast seat of Moncrieff, will be nervous. She has replaced Steve Ciobo and her campaign team would be watching for any cut in a healthy 15 per cent margin.

Crack open the champagne, yes — but not too many bottles early. Our new MP could be sitting in the Opposition benches.

So everyone will look towards the marginal seat of Forde, the city’s most northern electorate extending from the river at Upper Coomera through to Beenleigh and Logan. It will be determined by a complex flow of preferences.

The Greens favour Labor, Hanson and Palmer the conservatives although Labor believes it gets back more votes from One Nation than the United Australian Party. Possibly 45 per cent from Hanson.

Here’s a bit of inside political track talk if you are keen – like Bob Hawke once did – to have a wager.

The ALP did some polling on a marginal Queensland seat two weeks ago, which was kept quiet but showed their candidate was slightly ahead.

A Labor insider working at that marginal seat on the prepolls says Palmer’s United Australia Party and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation are a no show, much like in Forde.