Blue ribbon unravels

Coast’s conservative reputation under threat

ONE of Australia’s leading demographers says the Gold Coast’s status as a conservative heartland is increasingly under threat.

An analysis of electoral data from the past four federal elections shows the incumbent LNP MPs in the blue-ribbon seats of Moncrieff and McPherson are receiving a smaller share of the primary vote than a decade ago. In Moncrieff, which covers the central Coast, incumbent MP Steven Ciobo was backed by 53 per cent of the 91,665 enrolled voters in 2007. At the 2016 election, the last he contested, the number of voters had increased to 102,982 while his share of the primary vote had fallen to 49 per cent.

Social researcher Mark McCrindle said changes to the Gold Coast community were being reflected in voting patterns.

“The Gold Coast seats are not as blue ribbon as they once would have been,” he said. “If these trends continue and you get not just retirees but younger people coming to the city, then you will get the hollowing out of the primary vote. There is also an increasing trend towards people having non-full-time and noncareer work and this will further these trends.”

Despite the decline, Moncrieff remains one of the LNP’s safest seats, with an unbeatable margin of 14.6 per cent.

It is a similar story in the southern Gold Coast seat of McPherson. In 2007, thenMP Margaret May stood for the final time and secured 49.7 per cent of the primary vote in the face of a strong surge to Labor and its candidate, then-councillor Eddy Sarroff.

But at the 2016 election the number of enrolled voters topped 103,761 and incumbent MP Karen Andrews won 45 per cent of the primary vote.

On a two-party preferred basis she won 52.7 per cent.

Mr McCrindle said the Gold Coast’s growing student population and an increasing number of residents from overseas would be reflected in the way people voted.

“Some of the demographic data points towards a certain level of dynamism in these seats and this could mean a change in vote,” he said.