ED’S LETTER
“2020 WAS DISASTROUS, BUT NOT FOR USED-CAR SALES IN AUSTRALIA – AND NOT EVEN FOR NEW CARS, EITHER”
ABOUT THIS TIME last year, I was very keenly eyeballing second-hand Toyota 86s. They were getting as low as $14K, but I wanted one for $12K or less. Checking online marketplaces daily, I was ready to pounce on someone desperate to sell.
Then, well, you-know-what happened. In the months that felt like decades that followed, it seemed prudent to hold on to the cash I’d saved and possibly wait to see if (a) I was still in a house and not under a bridge somewhere and (b) in the supposed imminent economic cataclysm I might be able to get a used 86 GT for even less than $12K.
Well, I’m not under a bridge yet, but second-hand 86s are now more like $20K.
As you likely know, last year the used-car market went gaga. For me, this was driven home in an unlikely place – a Ferrari dealership – a month or two ago (picking up a car; not mine...). “Used Ferraris are going ballistic,” a salesperson said. “We get a 458 and it’s gone instantly.” Ferrari clienti, he said, typically spend up to $150K on an annual holiday (really) but now they were stuck in Australia and bored. “They don’t want to wait 12 months for a new car,” he said. “They want a toy, and now.”
Japanese imports, which I tend to watch most closely, have also entered silly territory. One of my own cars, a Japanese classic, is now of a value that makes it a bit scary to drive, but also one that has my inner accountant quite tempted to sell it and capitalise, as so many other owners have done – enthusiast and otherwise.
But it’s been fascinating to see the effect on the Australian new-car market as well. With local sales already suffering from a long, soft run, it seemed COVID-19 was the worst news possible. Especially about April 2020 – peak lockdown season in Australia – when new-car sales slumped 48.5 percent compared to April the previous year. It was almost time to start turning back the boats – the ones full of brand-new cars.
But as ever is the case in resilient Australia – not that we’re surfing a wave of government stimulus or anything – things bounced back. With Victoria’s second lockdown ending, state borders reopening and confidence returning to the largely COVID-free Australia, sales in November and December were up 12.4 and 13.5 percent respectively on the same months in 2019. In fact, they were the first two months of growth for the local market after 31 consecutive months of decline. And sales would have been higher again if not for demand outstripping supply of popular models such as utes and SUVs.
The story for the year was still bleak – with 916,968 new cars sold, it was the softest year for the Australian market since 2003, down 13.7 percent on 2019 – but it was still some way off the 30 percent drop the doomsayers had (not unfairly) foretold. The Toyota HiLux went on to be Australia’s bestselling car, again. Meanwhile, sales to private buyers were up 40 percent in December 2020 compared to December 2019, proving there’s a bit of cash burning a hole in the average Aussie’s pocket. It all bodes well for forecasts of a million new car sales in Australia again in 2021 – and also for the absolute influx of new metal on its way here this year, as you will read in our 31 Hottest Cars of 2021 story from page 14.
Not that anyone should make any predictions for the year ahead in this day and age. But if you do see a second-hand Toyota 86 for $12K or less, well, you know how to get in touch.