Market watch: Under $50,000
Sub-$50K used cars that have gone ballistic
As expected, anything Australian-made was going to be on the up anyway post local vehicle-manufacturing shutdown, and particularly following General Motors’ February 2020 announcement of the demise of Holden, which still shocked despite coming as no surprise.
Obviously, any pre-1980 Holden was already appreciating exponentially, with nothing but tired restoration jobs or paddock bombs lurking under $10,000. But now a clean and running late ’71 HQ-onwards Kingswood/Premier or Statesman is worth at least double that, while the sky’s the limit for earlier larger Holdens. Like buying property, there’s never really a bad time to buy lest you miss out altogether.
Nowhere has this been more evident that with the reborn Monaro from 2001 to 2006. In the past 12 months Monaro values have multiplied. Later VZ V6s that hovered in the low-20s are now asking twice that, while the earlier V2s are north of $50K nowadays; if you have a V8, tidy examples with under 40,000km are now over $80K while pristine manual CV8s are well into six figures.
However, it’s the sudden ascension of the early Commodores including – amazingly – the VN-VP-era (1988-1993) models that has taken experts by surprise. Hoary old V6s and V8s alike. Doubling and tripling depending on specification, they are no longer sub-$5K propositions. And by the time of publication, VR and VS models are likely to gather up pace, too.
Ford’s XF Falcon (1984) is now catching up to the earlier models already in similar pricing stratospheres. And the same applies with that sleeper of the Aussie-car community – the later (1976-’81 CL, CM) Chrysler Valiants, unless they’re basket cases. Which many are due to rust anyway.
Now, too, soaring towards $20,000 when very recently these were half that are the smaller Australian-built oldies. Clean and (mostly) rust-free Holden Geminis and Ford Escorts have doubled in value over the past 12 months, and now kick off in the teens even if only half-way tidy; Holden Toranas and Sunbirds as well as Ford Cortinas and Chrysler Centura are beginning with even higher numbers.
No surprise to learn that the same applies to Nissan Skylines, with the exception of the Aussie-made R31 (1986-1990), which have increased substantially in value but from a very low base; what was an average example for $3000 a couple of years ago has now breached the $10K mark. Earlier official imports can cost five times that; a mint 240K can be $100K. Wild.
Meanwhile, the ever-controversial Leyland P76 now regularly breaks above the $10,000-plus barrier, finally vindicating Robbo’s choice as our 1973 Car of the Year. Don’t forget, along with striking wedge styling capable of encapsulating a “44-gallon drum”, that offered an all-alloy Buick-derived V8…
Classic ’80s and ’90s models have also rocketed, with contemporary engineering rivals BMW and Honda offering two models that have performed especially well.
Japan first. If you’re into free-revving exquisitely-engineered three-door hatchbacks, then be prepared to pay. In the late
Anything clean and cared-for with a Toyota (Prado or LandCruiser) badge seems to have commanded a 50 percent premium over the past year
2010s it was still possible to buy the gorgeous, split-tailgate fish-inspired EG for a couple of grand, and even less for the anaemic base Breeze; nowadays, these seem to have quadrupled if you’re after a manual, well-preserved example.
In fact, sports car prices have been revving right up no matter what badge they’re brandishing.
If you were lucky enough to have bought an early Mazda MX-5 – and we’re talking NA (1989-1997) and NB (19982005) for under $10,000 just a couple of years ago, they’ve now more than doubled in value, depending on condition and variant, pushing up the latter NC (2005) and even ND (2015) prices up with them.
What is heartbreaking for bargain hunters is the inexorable rise of the now-defunct inexpensive Japanese personal coupe as epitomised by the Toyota Celica and Honda’s CRX and Prelude duo. What could be scooped up for $2500 or under in very presentable condition is now breaching $10,000 just 12 months down the line.
Even tired turbocharged Mitsubishis from the ’80s – namely the Porsche 924-embarrassing Starion and popular Cordia GSR – have long pulled five-figure sums, but the latter’s atmo style leader, the GSL, has suddenly boomed, accompanied by the Honda Integra (top tip: but not the rebadged five-door hatch version, the ’86-’89 Rover 416i – yet!), Sigma-based Scorpion, Nissan Gazelle, Nissan Exa, Subaru Vortex and Toyota Celica.
Speaking of coupes, we’re even seeing the demand for the Holden Calibra and the earliest Porsche 924 really gain traction lately, after years of languishing in the sub-$4000 region, leaving behind very few bargain coupes.
Among these are the Ford Probe and its Cougar replacement from America, both generations of Hyundai Coupes (1990 and 1996), the Volkswagen New Beetle and feline Peugeot 406 Coupe. The New Millennial foldinghardtop fad has also been largely spared by the COVID Tax, meaning Peugeot’s 206 CC, 307 CC and 308 CC, the Renault Megane CC, Holden’s Tigra (remember that?) and Astra TwinTop and Ford Focus Cabriolet are conspicuous bottom feeders, but for how long?
Strangely, the prices for early Porsche Boxsters seem to have stalled, though these are mostly for the less-desirable non-S (2.5 and 2.7-litre) and automatic variants. 944s have doubled lately but can still be found for under $50K, as can 996-era (water-cooled) 911s but only with high mileage and in need of attention, while everything else (non-SUV) is now well over that threshold.
Finally, there are 4x4s.
Anything clean and cared-for with a Toyota (Prado or LandCruiser) badge seems to have commanded a 50 percent premium over the past year or so – regardless of mileage – as many families are confined to camping and caravan holidays within their states and territories. Decent early Mitsubishi Pajeros and Nissan Patrols are within the same pricerise ballpark, while newer versions of all (say, from 2000s onwards) rarely come under $30,000 if in sound condition. Even later diesel-powered Y61 Patrols from the 2010s are punching beyond $50K.
Big money often equals greater volatility
Classic and sports car prices in the upper-end of the market have really yo-yoed in recent years. Getting a clear picture of where the market is right now can be tricky.
However, there seems to be some very specific types of vehicles – classic Australiana – tripling and quadrupling in value over recent times, with many now rocketing well into the six-figure territory.
According to classic car experts Dutton Garage’s Senior Classic Specialist, Rowan Thomson, traditional newer luxury and sports vehicles like most volume-production Porsches, Ferraris and Lamborghinis seem to be less affected by the COVID-fuelled surge.
“Our usual stock holding is pre-owned modern prestige, and rare classic sports cars,” he said. “This end of the market has remained reasonably consistent.”
Supporting that is the fact that Porsche still managed to shift over 270,000 new vehicles globally in 2020, which only represented a three percent fall from the year before; with the exotic Euro brands at least, it’s business as usual. Mainstream though? Well, that’s another story altogether. After record highs in the 2000s, the global financial crisis superstar performers like million-dollar Falcon GT-HO Phase IIIs scaled back, but now models that were not quite in the same league – that is, sub-$100K classics like regular Falcon GTs, Monaros, Chrysler Chargers and Holden Torana GTRs – are soaring, closing the gap on their more-revered siblings.
Case in point: earlier this year an immaculate 1970 Falcon XW GT breached $180,000, a little behind a 1978 XC Cobra Coupe and only slightly ahead of an XC Fairmont V8 Coupe. The older vehicle’s price is impressive, but it is the latter, later and in their day not-so-revered Fords that have hit new heights.
It appears having something different – rather than the time-honoured classic GT or GTS sedans or Charger R/T
E49 coupe – is where a lot of the growth seems to be lately.
Unrestored but clean plain utes and panel vans (and not just Holden Sandman or Falcon Sundowner models) have multiplied in value over the past couple of years, commanding in excess of $50,000.
People are even clamouring for the mundane. 500s, Falcons, Futuras and Fairmonts; Belmonts, Kingswoods and Premiers. Even lowly Torana SL 6s and UC Sunbirds with the dreaded Starfire-4 engine are fetching staggeringly high bidding.
“We are used to seeing strong demand for classic Australian cars, but we’ve never seen anything like this,” according to the CEO of Grays Marketplace Car Auction, Chris Corbin. “Clearance rates have never been higher and we don’t foresee demand or prices falling in the near future.”
Why is this happening? Obviously, and as already touched on, there are the effects resulting from being in the pandemic, with more disposable income coupled with a need to holiday within Australia. But there are also more emotionally profound influences at work here.
Essentially, Australian motoring enthusiasts are in the middle of the five traditional phases of grief and loss; and not just because of the well-documented upshot of the demise of local manufacturing, or the disappearance forever of homegrown models like the Commodore, Falcon and Ford Territory – models to be proud of, models to call our own. It also has to do with the fact that Aussie vehicles will never return; that we’re losing a skill as a nation in terms of design, engineering and building technologically advanced products; and that we’re no longer able to compete with the world’s best like Germany, Japan, France and the USA. This sportloving nation loved to see our underdog family cars beat the best the world had to offer.
This has been brewing since Ford’s heartbreaking announcement in May, 2013, that it would close its factories in Australia by the end of 2016, followed by Holden and
Toyota and their own respective plans to do the same in the following year. Denial and Anger, we’ve seen en-masse; now
“We’re used to seeing strong demand for classic Australian cars, but we’ve never seen anything like this”
it seems buyers are in the Bargaining stage of grieving, by buying up and attempting to save what is left out there so as to minimise the feeling of pain and loss.
The latter manifests itself in revisiting childhood cars to recapture a bygone era, mood or feeling. There’s comfort in nostalgia and those past experiences cannot be taken away by multinationals terminating production.
People, then, are buying up everything local with their hearts as well as their eyes, as prices continue to march up.
If it has an HSV (Holden Special Vehicles) or – better still – HDT (Holden Dealer Team) badge on it, you’ll need to update your agreed insurance value because what was $20,000 in 2017 could now be within striking distance of $100K – especially HSV versions of Holden VE/VF sedans and Monaro coupes. If you bought new as an investment, the news is great – and getting better all the time.
Dutton Garage’s Thomson reckons interest should remain unprecedently high in HSVs for some time to come.
“We found that late-model HSV Commodores were increasing steadily in price, so were able to adapt to that growing market and increase our stock holding of HSV vehicles during 2020,” he revealed. “We are not dealing in as many of them this year, but even now, the Gen F2 (VFII) last of the line models that we were mostly dealing in are on the market with asking prices way more than what the new price was.”
Low mileage and manual versions of the latter are currently commanding $150K, while HSV GTS R W1s – perhaps the greatest Australian vehicle of all time and certainly the fastest production car built here – are between $440K (used) and $900K (new, unregistered, 2017-built examples). VL Group As from a quarter-million; HT Monaro GTS manuals from $350K; LH Torana L34s for $500K.
In contrast, the $150K that FG Falcon GT Fs are fetching right now seem like relative bargains. Top tip there, folks.
If you’re in the market for something a bit more exotic in the classic and collectable car scene, then generally speaking, it’s business as usual with only minor upward price movements (if at all); values have more or less tracked at similar, historical levels.
One obvious exception, though, are big old 4x4 wagons, and again they’re the mainstream brands like classic old Toyota LandCruiser, Nissan Patrol and Mitsubishi Pajero rather than Range Rovers (original two-door wagons aside) that have really firmed up over the past few months. Cared-for and clean low-kilometre LandCruisers which are over a decade old are now regularly sailing up past $60,000 again, with the other two not far behind, representing rises of up to 50 percent compared to a year or two ago.
Clearly, their popularity is compounded by high new or near-new-model prices, lack of supply and the need to have something roomy, reliable and collectable to take away on family holidays, usually with a boat or caravan in tow.
Will this particular high-end SUV phenomenon last? Thomson wouldn’t bet against it, saying people are putting their money in other places like expensive vehicles because the usual spending avenues like overseas travel continues to be denied to them, so don’t expect changes any time soon.
“Nobody knows what’s going to happen in the next 12 months,” he says. “We’ve already seen higher prices, and we think that could be due to the lack of stock pushing prices up. This situation might continue as long as that’s the case.”