Escalation Of The Middle East War? It’s Already Begun
PARIS — There comes a point when predicting an “escalation” no longer makes sense. After nearly three months of intense bombardment in Gaza, the events of the last few days in Damascus, Beirut and Wednesday in southern Iran are enough to set the whole of the Middle East ablaze.
The logic of war is, however, not so predictable — and an act can have consequences felt days, weeks or months later. For this reason, generalized war is not necessarily being unleashed at this moment, but don’t read too much into it as good news, as the aggravation is palpable and significant.
In the space of eight days, Israel eliminated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s most senior officer, General Sayyed Razi Moussavi, in Damascus; then the No. 2 of Hamas, Salah al-Arouri, in a drone strike in Beirut. These were targeted assassinations to which we must add, with a caveat, Wednesday’s double attack in southern Iran: 103 dead and over a hundred wounded in the crowd preparing to honor the memory of Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian “hero” eliminated four years ago by the Americans.
On Wednesday, Israeli Mossad chief David Barnea, a man of few words, drew a parallel between October 7 and the 1972 Munich Olympics bombing. Israel, he said, will “settle accounts” with the perpetrators, planners and sponsors of the October 7 massacre.
“It will take time, he added, as it took time after the Munich massacre, but we will get our hands on them wherever they are.”
The timing of this statement was no coincidence, coming as it did the day after the elimination of al-Arouri, Hamas’ second-in-command.
The double explosion in southern Iran late Wednesday escapes this targeted logic, and it’s hard to see the logic of a mass attack that strikes anonymous people, even if they are supporters of the regime. In the same way, since targeting works, as we saw on Tuesday in Beirut, it would also contradict the shelling of Gaza and the thousands of civilian deaths. Several calculations seem to be at work at the same time.
From these elements, two certainties and two questions can be drawn. First is that Israel is not ready to put an end to its military campaign in Gaza or across the region, even if the modalities change. The Jewish state is also ready to take any risk to avenge the October 7 massacre, including a regional war, risking complicating the fate of the hostages still in the hands of Hamas.
Questions surround the choices to be made by Iran and Hezbollah, challenged even in their strongholds. For the past three months, they have been careful to gauge their military commitment to avoid being drawn into a war that could compromise Tehran’s nuclear dream.
The final question is directed towards the attitude of the United States, both supportive and critical of Israeli strategy. Washington was unexpectedly firm this week in denouncing the inflammatory remarks made by Israel’s far-right ministers. Does the U.S., which wanted to avoid a regional conflagration, approve of the targeted operations of the last few days?
The United States and Europe share the same priority of finding a political solution to the conflict, but each new step in the escalation makes that even more difficult. That too is part of the equation.