For A Gaza Truce, Hostages Remain The Hardest Question
CAIRO — There are details about security arrangements. There’s the question of how long a ceasefire would last. There are the old blueprints for Palestinian statehood being dusted off.
Even with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hard “No” to Hamas’ latest proposal to halt the fighting in Gaza, negotiations continue full-speed in Cairo, where Hamas officials arrived Thursday after Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Now, as before, the objective of both the warring parties and international intermediaries is for a Gaza war truce and perhaps a longer-term resolution. It’s a negotiating context with multiple moving parts. Yet negotiators are ever more aware that the geometry of any deal must begin with the question of Hamas releasing Israeli hostages.
Israel has demanded that before any other details are addressed, all those captured on Oct. 7 who remain in Gaza must be released. As part of the lastminute attempt to salvage some kind of deal Wednesday, Israel reportedly offered a brief, temporary pause in fighting in return for the hostages’ freedom. Indeed, taking (and holding) hostages was always part of Hamas’ war plans and objectives. Though it indiscriminately killed some 1,200 in cold blood during its assault four months ago in southern Israel, there was a concerted effort to keep others alive, capturing 240 people, and taking them into Gaza.
Hamas was aware that Israel would launch a war in response to such a massive attack. Its leaders may have hoped that the hostages being held in the war zone might limit the scale of the response. That has not proven to be the case.
After earlier negotiations, the Palestinian group released just over 100 hostages, including foreign passport holders, during a weeklong ceasefire in late November. Still, its leaders — particularly the head in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar — know that holding on to hostages is a valuable asset in any negotiations with Israel.
The group – as it’s done over the past – is using the hostages as bargaining chips not only to push for a truce, but to obtain the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners. Sinwar himself was released in a prisoner exchange deal in 2011 which saw the release of one Israeli soldier in return for over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israel.
Hamas’ dilemma
Hamas has said it will only release all the hostages when Israel ends its war and permanently withdraws from Gaza. It wants a broader agreement that would include a long-term truce and reconstruction of the devastated enclave.
The group’s top political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, said last month that its priority is the “full withdrawal” of Israeli forces from Gaza. He said any agreement should also lead to reconstruction, the lifting of Israel’s blockade on Gaza, and the release of “all our heroic prisoners.”
Hamas fears that releasing the remaining Israeli hostages without ending the war would leave it exposed to an even greater Israeli onslaught once any ceasefire expires. And if it fails to secure the release of a significant number of Palestinian prisoners, it would face harsh criticism from Palestinians after the unprecedented death and destruction in Gaza.
Israel’s relentless bombardment has killed over 26,700 Palestinians, most of them women and children, according to the Health Ministry in Hamas-ruled Gaza.
Some 85% of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million have fled their homes and the U.N. says a quarter of the population is facing acute hunger.
Three-stage releases
In its latest proposal for a ceasefire, Hamas offered a deal in three stages, over four-and-a-half months. The first stage includes the release of all remaining women, children and older and sick men, in return for an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The proposal also called for Israel to withdraw from populated areas, cease aerial operations, allow far more aid to enter and permit Palestinians to return to their homes, including in northern Gaza.
During the first stage, the two sides would negotiate a second 45-day stage. That would see Hamas releasing all remaining hostages, mostly soldiers, in exchange for all Palestinian detainees over the age of 50, including senior militants sentenced to life in prison in Israel. An additional 1,500 Palestinian prisoners would be released; 500 of whom would be chosen by Hamas. Israel would complete its withdrawal from Gaza, according to the proposal. In the third phase, the sides would exchange the remains of hostages and prisoners.
Netanyahu’s dilemma
As negotiations resume in Cairo on Thursday, it is not clear how much of the latest framework is still on the table. Netanyahu has declared that Israel will press on for “total victory,” even if nobody can agree on what that means. But what is clear is the pressure that remains on the Israeli Prime Minister from families of the hostages and the wider public to reach a deal with Hamas to bring the hostages home.
Hamas is widely believed to be holding the hostages in heavily guarded tunnels deep underground. Israeli officials have repeatedly claimed that Hamas uses the hostages as human shields for its top leaders. Many Israelis – including senior government officials – are concerned that time is running out. They will continue to call for a negotiated deal to release the hostages.
“Whoever speaks of the absolute defeat (of Hamas) and of it no longer having the will or the capability (to attack Israel), is not speaking the truth,” said centrist war cabinet minister Gadi Eisenkot in televised comments last month. “It is not possible to return the hostages alive, in the near term, without a deal.” He criticized: “anyone trying to sell fantasies to the public,” according to Time of Israel daily.
Over the past four months, Israeli forces in Gaza have managed to free only one hostage in a military operation. In December, the military mistakenly killed three hostages when they fled their captors and raised a white flag. In total, it is believed that around three dozen hostages have been killed in Gaza.
Netanyahu’s repeated vow that the war won’t be ended until crushing Hamas and releasing the hostages is revealing its own contradiction. Adding to the complexity is that Netanyahu’s coalition government would collapse without the support of hardline allies, who think Israel shouldn’t even be negotiating. These far-right ministers have openly called for the reoccupation of Gaza, and oppose any deal with Hamas — with or without hostages.