Bureau’s hot sum­mer out­look

Yarrawonga Chronicle - - On The Land -

Most of Aus­tralia is likely to see a hot­ter than nor­mal sum­mer pe­riod, ac­cord­ing to the Bureau’s 2018-19 Sum­mer Out­look re­leased.

The Bureau’s man­ager of long-range fore­cast­ing Dr An­drew Watkins said the out­look showed most of the coun­try had an 80 per cent chance of ex­ceed­ing nor­mal tem­per­a­tures over the next three months.

“Sum­mer in Aus­tralia typ­i­cally brings hot tem­per­a­tures for many com­mu­ni­ties and the out­look in­di­cates this sum­mer will be no dif­fer­ent,” Dr Watkins said.

“We’ve al­ready seen ex­tremely hot tem­per­a­tures through parts of north and cen­tral Queens­land in re­cent days and this should act as an im­por­tant re­minder of the kinds of con­di­tions we can get dur­ing an Aus­tralian sum­mer.

“In terms of rain­fall, the out­look shows a drier than av­er­age three months is likely for large parts of Western Aus­tralia, Queens­land and the Top End of the North­ern Ter­ri­tory. For the rest of the coun­try there is no strong push in­di­cat­ing wet­ter or drier than av­er­age con­di­tions.

“Hav­ing said that, lo­cally heavy rain­fall events sim­i­lar to what we have seen in New South Wales in the last two days are al­ways a pos­si­bil­ity dur­ing sum­mer, no mat­ter what the out­look is show­ing.”

The Bureau’s ENSO out­look re­mains at El Niño alert, mean­ing the chance of an El Niño form­ing in 2018 is 70 per cent, roughly triple the nor­mal risk.

An El Niño typ­i­cally brings drier and warmer con­di­tions to eastern Aus­tralia but the rain­fall ef­fects tend to be less pro­nounced in the south dur­ing sum­mer months.

The Bureau’s spring summaries will be re­leased on Mon­day, 3 De­cem­ber but pre­lim­i­nary fig­ures show it’s likely to be one of the 10 warm­est springs on record for the coun­try as a whole.

Rain­fall dur­ing spring has been a mixed bag with above-av­er­age rain­fall through south­ern Western Aus­tralia (apart from the south­west), most of the North­ern Ter­ri­tory, north­ern and western South Aus­tralia, small ar­eas in south­east Queens­land and north­east New South Wales. Vic­to­ria and Tas­ma­nia are cur­rently on track for one of the 10 dri­est springs on record re­spec­tively.

View the lat­est out­look: http://www.bom. gov.au/cli­mate/out­looks/#/over­view/sum­mary

Videos and maps are also avail­able: http:// www.bom.gov.au/cli­mate/ahead/

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