WILL THE UK REMAIN UNITED?

On 6 May, Scots will go to the polls to elect a new Scottish parliament. It will be the most important election since the parliament was re-established, in 1999. To understand why requires a quick look at the country’s history. In the Acts of Union of 1706–07, Scotland joined England and Wales to form Great Britain. Scots then played a key role in Britain becoming the world’s most advanced, industrialized and richest nation. There has long been a significant number of Scots who have favoured independence from the rest of Britain. In 1997, the UK government led by Labour leader Tony Blair proposed greater devolution for Scotland, confirmed in a referendum that year. In 1999, the new Scottish parliament (Holyrood) was given powers to decide policies on issues such as the economy, education, health, housing and the environment, transport and taxation. Matters such as defence, employment, foreign policy, immigration, and trade and industry are still decided by the UK parliament in Westminster. Since the mid-2000s, the dominant Labour and Conservative parties have lost large numbers of votes to the Scottish National Party (SNP). The big question in this year’s elections — the first since Brexit — is whether the SNP will get enough votes for an absolute majority in Holyrood. This would boost their push for independence from the rest of the UK. In the Scottish independence referendum of 2014, 55 per cent of voting Scots said no to independence. Two years later, in the UK’S Brexit referendum, 62 per cent of voting Scots said they wanted to stay in the EU. They have now been taken out of the EU against their will. Opinion polls suggest that many more Scots would now vote for both independence and being part of the EU. If the SNP wins a decisive victory on 6 May, demands for another referendum on independence will grow louder. Although the UK government says it will not allow another referendum so soon after the last one, the May elections have the potential to take the UK a big step nearer to a historic break-up.