Hard Times For Soft Drinks

Five years ago, Mayor Michael A. Nutter proposed a tax on soda in Philadelphia, and the industry rose up to beat it back.

It’s a familiar story. Soda taxes have also flopped in New York State and San Francisco. So far, only superliberal Berkeley, California, has succeeded in adopting such a measure over industry objections. The soda industry is winning the policy battles over the future of its product. But the bigger picture is that soda companies are losing the war.

Even as anti- obesity campaigners like Mr. Nutter have failed to pass taxes, they have reminded people that soda — a mainstay of American culture — is not a very healthy product.

Over the last 20 years, sales of full- calorie soda in the United States have plummeted by more than 25 percent. Bottled water is now on track to overtake soda as the largest beverage category in two years, according to at least one industry projection.

The drop in soda consumption represents the single largest change in the American diet in the last decade.

From 2004 to 2012, children consumed 79 fewer sugar-sweetened beverage calories a day, according to a large government survey, representing a 4 percent cut in calories over all.

As total calorie intake has declined, obesity rates among school- age children appear to have leveled off. In Philadelphia, where the tax failed but the debate discouraged people from drinking soda, consumption among teenagers dropped sharply — by 24 percent — from 2007 to 2013. Last month, the city Department of Public Health reported a sustained decline in childhood obesity over the last seven years.

The beverage industry continues to fight these shifts. But