Venezuela’s Crisis Worries Cuba
MEXICO CITY — During the economic turmoil of the early 1990s, power cuts in Havana were so routine that residents called the few hours of daily electricity “lightouts.”
Now grim economic forecasts, the crisis in its patron, Venezuela, and government warnings to save energy have stoked fears among Cubans of a return to the days when they used oil lamps to light their living rooms and walked or bicycled to work because there was no gasoline.
Cuba’s economy minister, Marino Murillo, told Parliament the country has to cut fuel consumption by nearly a third during the second half of the year and reduce state investments and imports. Cuba’s economy grew by just 1 percent in the first half of the year, compared with 4 percent last year, as export income and fuel supply to the island dropped, he said.
Weak oil and nickel prices and a poor sugar harvest have contributed to Cuba’s woes, officials said. Venezuela’s economic agony has led many Cubans to wonder how much longer their oil-rich ally will continue to sup- ply the island with crucial oil — especially if the government of President Nicolás Maduro falls.
“We all know that it’s Venezuelan oil that keeps the lights on,” said Regina Coyula, a blogger. “People are convinced that if Maduro falls, there will be blackouts here.”
President Raúl Castro of Cuba recently said those fears were unfounded. “There is speculation and rumors of an imminent collapse of our economy and a return to the acute phase of the ‘special period,’ ” Mr. Castro said in a speech to Parliament, referring to the 1990s, when Cuba lost billions of dollars’ worth of Soviet subsidies. “We don’t deny that there may be ill effects but we are in better conditions than we were then.”
But some are perturbed at the prospect of power cuts. In an unusually blunt speech to journalists, Karina Marrón González, a deputy director of Granma, the official Communist Party newspaper in Cuba, warned of the risk of protests like those of August 1994, when hundreds of angry Cubans took to the streets of Havana.
“We are creating a perfect storm,” she said, according to a transcript of her speech.
José Gonzáles, who owns a small cafeteria in downtown Havana, was more sanguine.
“Raúl is simply urging us to cut back on unnecessary consumption, that’s all,” he said, adding that talk of another special period was “just a lot of speculation.”
Not all offices or companies have been affected. Mr. Murillo said the idea was to ration energy in some users so that others — homes, tourist facilities and companies — could use as much as they need. In all, he said, the government aimed to cut electricity use by 6 percent and fuel by 28 percent.
On July 8, Mr. Castro said there had been a “certain contraction” of that oil supply. How large of a contraction is unclear. If Venezuela did halt oil exports to Cuba, it would not necessarily precipitate a political crisis, experts said.
The United States may offer help. The Cuban government might speed reforms and open the door wider to foreign investment, Mr. Entwistle said.
“To extrapolate some dire political consequence is unwise,” Mr. Entwistle said. “There are so many levers that they have to push and pull.”