A One-State Solution Is Gaining Traction

JERUSALEM — The Israeli right, emboldened by President Donald J. Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, is not the only faction arguing for a single state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. For the first time since it declared its support for a Palestinian state side-by-side with Israel in 1988, the Palestine Liberation Organization is seriously debating fallback options, including a single state.

“It’s dominating the discussion,” said Mustafa Barghouti, a physician who sits on the P.L.O.’s central council. Palestinian supporters envision one state with equal rights for Palestinians and Jews. Palestinians would have proportionate political power and, given demographic trends, would before long be a majority, spelling the end of the Zionist project.

That outcome is unacceptable to the Israeli right wing, which is pressing to annex the land on the occupied West Bank where Jewish settlers have built communities while consigning Palestinians to areas where they live now. Israeli proponents acknowledge that the Palestinian areas would be considerably less than a state: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has even called it a “state-minus.” Eventually, they say, the Palestinians could achieve statehood in a confederation with Jordan or Egypt, as part of Israel, or perhaps even independently — but not soon.

Both sides have long officially supported the idea of a two- state solution to the conflict while accusing the other of harboring designs on the whole territory. But Mr. Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, with no mention of a Palestinian claim on the city, was seen as the death knell for the twostate solution, said Saeb Erekat, a veteran Palestinian negotiator. He said Palestinians should shift their focus to “one state with equal rights.”

Under that idea, the Palestinian movement would shift to a struggle for equal civil rights, including freedoms of movement, assembly and speech, and the right to vote in national elections. To its Palestinian supporters, the one-state idea is bitter consolation after decades of striving for statehood under the Oslo peace accords, which many believe has achieved little aside from allowing Israel to expand settlements.

Some are talking about drafting a prototype constitution for a single state or forming a political party in Israel and on the West Bank to push for it. The idea has stronger support among the young, said Khalil Shikaki, a Palestinian pollster, particularly students and professionals who have wanted a change in strategy since the Arab Spring in 2011.

To the Israeli right, abandoning the two-state goal is a good thing. Many look at Gaza, from which Israel unilaterally withdrew in 2005, and imagine a Palestinian state on the West Bank similarly overtaken by the militant Hamas organization, with rockets raining down on Ben- Gurion airport. But absorbing the nearly three million Palestinians on the West Bank would either spell the end of a Jewish state or destroy Israeli democracy. “I would never give citizenship to the masses of the Arab population in Judea and Samaria,” said Yoav Kisch, a member of Parliament from Mr. Netanyahu’s party.

“If the two- state solution dies, it will be the responsibility of Israel, not the Palestinians,” Mr. Barghouti said. “But if the Israelis kill it, which they’re in the process of doing now, unfortunately with the help of Trump’s administration, then the only option will be for us to fight the apartheid system and bring it down, which means one state with equal rights for everybody.”