Anxiety Over Iran’s Influence
BEIRUT, Lebanon — When an Iranian drone flew into Israeli airspace this month, it set off a rapid series of strikes and counterstrikes that deepened fears over whether a new, catastrophic war was brewing in the Middle East.
That flare-up ended quickly, with the drone destroyed and an Israeli jet downed after bombing sites in Syria. But the fighting drew new attention to how deeply Iran has embedded itself in Syria, redrawing the strategic map of the region.
Advisers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps are deployed at military bases across Syria. Its commanders regularly show up at the front lines to lead battles. Iran has built and continues to back powerful militias with thousands of fighters it has trained in Syria. And it has brought in new technologies, like drones, to spy on enemies and perhaps to attack them from the sky.
Both Israeli officials and Israel’s enemies say that any new conflict between Israel and Iran, or any of its allies, could mobilize Iran’s network of militant proxies in multiple countries, what Iran refers to as “the axis of resistance.”
Iran and its allies first intervened in Syria to defend President Bashar al-Assad against rebels after civil war broke out in 2011, and later helped against the Islamic State.
But as the rebels have lost ground, Iran and its allies have stayed, creating an infrastructure to threaten Israel, experts say. Iran continues to train fighters while strengthening ties with allies in Iraq and Lebanon, in hopes of building a united front.
“The ultimate goal is, in the case of another war, to make Syria a new front between Israel, Hezbollah and Iran,” said Amir Toumaj, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who studies Iran. “They are making that not just a goal, but a reality.”
A key to Iran’s strategy, analysts say, is to rely not on conventional military hardware or control of territory, which Israel can bomb, but on building ties with local forces who share its goals and benefit from its financing and expertise. That approach has enabled Iran to amplify its power in the Arab world while decreasing the threat to its homeland. It has created a problem for the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia, who have struggled to stop Iran’s growing influence.
Some in Israel have started referring to a potential “First Northern War,” meaning that Israel will have to fight across both the Lebanese and Syrian frontiers. And many Israelis say the danger is not just from the new Iranian- backed militias, but also from the Iranian efforts to give advanced weapons to Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful and experienced external force.
Israeli officials have said that Iran wants to establish a land corridor from Iran to the Mediterranean, via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, to ease the transportation of weapons and to build underground arms factories in Lebanon and Syria. Israel has been bombing convoys in Syria believed to be carrying arms to Hezbollah. Such arms, coupled with heavy barrages from the more than 100,000 rockets and missiles without high-precision targeting capability that Israel says Hezbollah already has, could overwhelm Israel’s defenses.
In expanding its influence in Syria, Iran has followed a standard template. In Lebanon in the 1980s, it helped create Hezbollah, which has since evolved into a regional power, joining the wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. In Iraq, Iran has sponsored militias while developing deep ties to the Iraqis. Israel fears the threat of a permanent Iranian presence in Syria similar to that posed by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Analysts say that is exactly the idea. “It’s like a replication of the Hezbollah model,” said Ali Rizk, a Lebanese analyst.
Both sides say they do not want war, and the fear of destruction and civilian deaths has deterred new hostilities since the last war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. But the more entrenched Iran’s allies become, the greater the pressure Israeli leaders could face to launch a strike — and the greater the chances that a miscalculation by either side could provoke new hostilities.
Some analysts have expressed hopes that Russia, which also intervened in Syria on Mr. Assad’s behalf, could serve as a check on Iran’s ambitions. Russia has cooperated with Iran during the war but also seeks to maintain good relations with Israel.
Notably, Russia has not publicly complained when Israel has bombed convoys believed to be bound for Hezbollah.