Security problems impede realization of TAPI pipeline

All participant countries of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline are keen to see the project to come true, but the current situation makes it unlikely.

The statement was made Michael Kugelman, senior program associate for South and Southeast Asia at the Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington.

It is hard to imagine the construction of the pipeline through Afghanistan due to security issues, Kugelman told to Trend news agency. Many parts of Afghanistan have become completely inaccessible. Thus, it is not wise to invest capital, labor and machinery for an extended period of time, he added.

Kugelman further stated that Afghanistan and Pakistan have an urgent need and a strong interest in constructing their sections because of energy security issue as soon as possible. However, the current situation of the security in Afghanistan makes the construction of the pipeline improbable.

TAPI pipeline will transport Turkmen gas from Galkynysh - the largest field of the country to the large and promising markets in South and Southeast Asia via Afghan cities of Herat and Kandahar to Fazilka settlement near the India-Pakistan border.

The estimated cost of the TAPI project will exceed $10 billion. It will have the capacity of 33 billion cubic meters and its total length will be 1,814 kilometers- 214 kilometers will pass through Turkmenistan, 774 kilometers through Afghanistan and 826 kilometers through Pakistan.

The construction of the pipeline is expected to be finalized in three years. Turkmenistan began building Turkmen section of the TAPI in December 2015, and it is not determined yet when Afghanistan and Pakistan will commence constructing their sections of the pipeline.

Kugelman also reminded that Pakistan signed a huge infrastructure deal worth of $46 billion with China in April 2015, which also includes financing the construction of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline known as Peace pipeline. Thus, Pakistan’s incentive to construct its section of the TAPI pipeline is not as strong as it was before signing the investment deal with China last year.

Recently, Turkmenistan invited Qatar and Saudi Arabia to support the implementation of the TAPI pipeline.

Nevertheless, Kugelman be- lieves that both Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s participation in the construction of the TAPI pipeline is also unlikely as those countries also currently suffer from low oil prices in the global market. Thus, they will act very cautiously and strategically in directing their investments.

Kugelman thinks that these countries would be interested in deploying their capital to less risky ventures. They can't afford to lose more financial means, and TAPI project does not amount to a winning bet right now.

The implementation of the TAPI pipeline will help Turkmenistan to diversify its gas export routes and contribute to the economic growth of the country as well and overall, enhance energy security in the region.

In addition, many see the construction of TAPI as an opportunity to pave the way for restoring political and social stability and peace in Afghanistan that could contribute to the rehabilitation of the war-torn country.

Turkmenistan believes that the Afghan side will take all necessary measures to ensure the safety while laying the TAPI pipeline.