Yerevan on thin ice: challenge of peace talks
Yerevan is about to blast the already tense situation in the region. Aggression rather than talks seems to be the major artery of the Sargsyan regime, which assiduously stages provocations against Azerbaijan.
Yerevan is about to blast the already tense situation in the region. Aggression rather than talks seems to be the major artery of the Sargsyan regime, which assiduously stages provocations against Azerbaijan.
For over two decades, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in conflict, which emerged over Armenia's territorial claims against its South Caucasus neighbor. Despite the official ceasefire, each year the conflict becomes a cause of the deaths of dozens of civilians and military.
The latest outbreak of violence on the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens to destabilize the whole region. The renewed hostilities also proved that it is impossible to resolve the conflict by keeping a status quo.
Baku has repeatedly stated the conflict must be ended as the statusquo is only a “time bomb”, which can blast every minute. However, Yerevan still refuses to take any step in resolving the conflict instead refusing the peace talks and warning to recognize the separatist regime in NagornoKarabakh.
Rhetoric about recognition of the "independence" of the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh is an attempt to put pressure not only on Baku, but also on the mediators of the OSCE Minsk Group, believes Nadana Fridrikhson, political analyst, journalist and expert of the 'Cube' analytical center.
The April hostilities actually canceled existing status quo in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, she said, claiming that under the current situation, where there are all prerequisites for the start of the war, Armenia is trying "to play on the nerves."
“This de jure "recognition" of the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh may provoke Azerbaijan on fighting, because Baku will have no other choice,” the expert said.
Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry already warned that Armenia`s recognizing the separatist regime in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan would mean an end of the Minsk Group Process and the Minsk Group will have no mandate for any negotiations.
Urging the international community to adequately respond to Armenian provocations, Baku stated that the OSCE Minsk group co-chairs need to bring Armenian leadership to peace and constructive negotiation process.
The U.S., Russia and France, which are the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group established to broker a settlement of the conflict, has not yet reacted to Armenia’s provocative intention to spoil the peace process through opposing the principles of international law.
Indeed, experts agree that in case Yerevan recognizes the "independence" of the separatist NagornoKarabakh, Armenia itself will provoke a war.
“This [the recognition] will mean demonstration of disrespect to norms and principles of the international law, peace process and once again prove the terrorist essence of the Sargsyan regime, for which the international law is only a piece of paper,” said expert Arye Gut.
Still, the recognition of the draft law presented by two Armenian MPs may entail more problems than breaking the peace process. This is a step directed against the existing world order, internationally recognized borders of a sovereign state. Any attempt for illegal annexation of Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh can provoke Azerbaijan to demand its other historical lands, including Zenegezur and Irevan.
The Azerbaijani state and people will never allow the establishment of a second Armenian state on Azerbaijani territory. The world should show firm position, and avoid double standards as the failure can result in a new war.