Russia’s arms supply to Armenia raises concern

Russia’s continuous arms supply to Armenia benefit the aggressor country in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, along with threatening security of the entire region. Few days earlier, the Armenian side has approved the deal with Russia on weapons supply to Armenia through a $200 million deal. The Armenian government approved the first $ 100 million loan package, which will be extended to Armenia for 20 years.

However, while the arms purchases of Armenia is limited to outdated rather than modern— and is likely to remain relatively small in the foreseeable future than those of Azerbaijan — there is another side that needs attention.

Armenia, probably best known for occupation of Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territories and attacks to the neighboring countries, is the aggressor side, while Azerbaijan is the country suffering from Armenia’s aggression for over two decades. Therefore, supplying Armenia with weapons can be regarded as the support to aggression rather than balanced policy between the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Some experts viewed it as another provocation by Yerevan ahead of the peace talks, while others argued that the deal hardly gives Armenia more power than those of Azerbaijan.

Dr. Ariel Cohen, senior research fellow at the Atlantic Council and director at the Center for energy, natural resources and geopolitics at the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, commenting on the timing of the approval of the deal, said that it is time to consider a solution to the conflict and not waste money on weapons.

“Both Armenia and Azerbaijan took steps to arm themselves to the teeth,” Cohen told Trend. “While Armenia bought over the years a lot of Russian weapons, Azerbaijan also purchased up to $5 billion worth of Russian weapons and close to the same amount of Israeli weapons.”

Cohen reminded that there were other purchases as well, stressing that in the long term, concerning the money, Armenia will not be able to compete with Azerbaijan in terms of the quantity and quality of weapons Baku is purchasing.

“$100 million will not change Armenia's lagging behind Azerbaijan in terms of the arsenal,” Cohen said emphasizing that it is time to settle this protracted conflict which brought so much suffering to people on both sides.

Nathalie Goulet, French senator and vice-chair of the Senate’s Foreign Affairs Committee, in turn, said that Russia’s weapon delivery to Armenia, if it’s the reality, is a breach of trust.

“It is also breach of the Russian position as the OSCE Minsk cochair,” she told Trend. “It’s a real embarrassment to think of this kind of misbalance practice.”

The French senator further stressed that the region needs peace and security.

“We don’t need a new front in South Caucasus. We need to build the trust. We don’t need foreign interferences. It’s really not the right time,” she added.

Goulet, voicing hope that it’s a fake news, noted that Azerbaijan may ask international investigation in UN and OSCE.

Agnia Grigas, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington DC talking to Trend over the issue, stressed that the arms deals with Russia have become the status quo and will not abate until the Kremlin is ready to let go of its efforts to control its so-called ‘near abroad.’

Russia along with the U.S. and France is a co-chair country of the OSCE Minsk Group that acted as the only mediator in resolution of the conflict for over two decades, but still the illegal occupation has been left out of due attention of the international community for years.

“The arms deals will certainly not help the peace process,” she said.

Rob Sobhani, director general of the Caspian Group Holdings, commenting on news said that the timing of the military loan approval by Armenia is very suspicious and indicates a lack of will to solve the conflict.

"Instead it shows an attitude of not wanting to solve the problem," he said noting that it appears that the people of Armenia are not being well served by their leaders.

"Armenian academics, who are fair, have mentioned that militarization of their country will not help the prospects for peace," he noted.

Sobhani also commented on upcoming hearings on the NagornoKarabakh to be hosted by the U.S.-based Helsinki Commission, stressing that these hearings will hardly impact the peace talks.

"The key to resolving this conflict seems to be in the hands of Russia and until they see a strategic advantage to allow Armenia to sign a peace treaty. Unfortunately I do not believe Moscow will act," he added.

Europe is too immersed in its own internal problems such as ISISinspired terrorism as well as challenges from uncontrolled immigration, according to the expert.

"If the resolution of the conflict resulted in a commercial benefit to Europe they would act," Sobhani said further stressing that this EU attitude is shortsighted, because Azerbaijan is a reliable energy partner of Europe and their energy security will be enhanced if the conflict is resolved.

The Helsinki Commission is chaired by Chris Smith, who enjoys close ties with the Armenian lobby in the U.S. Smith was also the initiator of the anti-Azerbaijani bill previously submitted to the U.S. Congress by the Helsinki Commission.

Azerbaijan and Armenia for over two decades have been locked in a conflict, which emerged over Armenia's territorial claims to Azerbaijan. Since the 1990s war, Armenian armed forces have occupied over 20 percent of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent regions. Although the UN Security Council has adopted four resolutions on Armenian withdrawal from the occupied lands of Azerbaijan, they have not been enforced to this day.

Over the recent years, Azerbaijan, while maintaining arms trade with Russia, began to increase military-technical cooperation with closer partners - Pakistan, Turkey and Israel along with building on a well-developed military industry.

Any normal analysis can prove, the Armenians should be heavily outgunned. Moreover, Armenia has a population of hardly around three million,while Azerbaijan is approaching 10 million people. Azerbaijan has nearly twice the GDP per capita, while its defense budget also exceeds Armenia’s total national budget.

Furthermore, Baku has wide opportunities for maneuver in matters of armament and economic potential. This gives grounds to say that the aggressor with the help of Russia will not be able to establish military parity with Azerbaijan and continue an arms race.