AWAITING THE INEVITABLE
ON BREXIT
Over the last two years I’ve had to answer a lot of questions from Remainers. There’s the conversation where they politely double-check that you’re not a vicious racist, despite having known you a long time. Or the one where they become a self-appointed Andrew Marr and press you on exactly why you voted Leave and what you expect from it.
I’ve stopped answering. I don’t need their validation and my reasons are boringly predictable, the same as they were in 2016. Even if I did tell them and they subsequently conceded the possibility that I might not be a racist, I’ve learnt from experience that the moment we get to sovereignty I’ll appear to be talking in tongues. They’ll claim you still retain it as a member of the EU, even though the negotiations have run aground on that very issue.
And they’re not the only ones who don’t get the sovereignty thing. The prime minister has made immigration controls the USP of her pitch, ignoring that sovereignty was the most important reason given in the most wide-ranging Brexit poll available.
It’s been excruciating to watch the Remainers in control trying to contort the deal into what they think Leavers want, like a partner wearing a weird OUTIT THEY’RE CONVINCED YOU LOVE.
While Brexit is still on balance likely, we’re still at risk of accidentally remaining in the EU because of our shambolic handling of the whole thing. And if that does happen, the whole political class will be held accountable. That means the Tories, for taking so long to proceed with a coherent position; the ERG, for having the word “research” in their name but not being able to ascertain how many of them were just giving it the big’un after a glass of port; the Labour frontbench, for trying to survive a coach crash rather than have any CCTV footage of their hand on the wheel; the Lib Dems, for their immediate and stroppy refusal to accept the outcome; the SNP, ever since Brexit laid bare the paradox at the heart of their movement (they want to stay in single markets…so long as you need a ferry to get there); and the EU, for not realising there might’ve been a clear British majority for Remain by now if we hadn’t had to watch so many silver-haired blokes SMIRKING THEIR WAY THROUGH BRIEINGS.
I also resent the braying Leavers who, in the aftermath of the vote, did that shushing bollocks to the home fans.
Many hardcore Remainers never accepted the idea of Brexit. They spoke about campaign lies, even though their side told them. They pointed to funding irregularities, Russian bots, Cambridge Analytica – and they conveniently forgot that they were given every advantage back in 2016, but lost. They thought they’d looked deep into the economic crystal ball when it was in fact a pound-shop snowglobe.
There will be consequences to Brexit not happening. I don’t say that in the style of an ominous Farage threat or with any sense of glee. I hate the idea of a far-right party winning seats, but there’s a strong chance it’ll happen. Not immediately, but slowly and surely an organisation will trot out the recruiting line so often used by fanatics and zealots: “They didn’t listen to you, but we will.” Before you know it, we’ll be hankering for the “good old days” when at least Ukip were embarrassed about their xenophobia.
PEOPLE COULD ALSO LOCK TO FAR-LEFT parties but for some reason that doesn’t concern anyone. Historical deaths in gulags don’t count to the liberal left, like alcoholic units consumed on a plane.
Ultimately, it should be OK to give the people a say over the way they’re governed. People should also be able to look at the EU project, its expansion, its economic inertia, the possibility of it coming unstuck in the medium-term future and decide to go a different way. It should then be possible for the political establishment to enact that will.
In the coming weeks, there’s a strong chance that process might be undone. As economists like JP Morgan now think there’s a 40 per cent chance Britain will ultimately stay inside the EU, Remainers might need to switch from asking questions to answering them. Then the critics will become the critiqued. The questions will be all theirs. I want to know how we ensure THAT PEOPLE DON’T LOCK TO POLITICAL extremism. Or how we handle the inevitable democratic disengagement that will follow. How any government claims a mandate if general election turnout dips below 50 per cent. However, no one’s told me what happens if a second referendum is 52-48 the other way, so I won’t hold my breath (maybe the Queen invites JRM and Andrew Adonis to the palace to draw ceremonial short straws).
Continuity Remain might need to start planning now, or they could end up looking just like Boris: blinking and bemused, totally unprepared for their own success.