NHS faces bleakest winter yet, warn experts

LONDON: Twice as many patients spent 12 hours or more sitting in A&E (Accident & Emergency) trolleys waiting for a bed in November as in the same month last year, as experts warn of the ”the bleakest winter” in the National Health Service (NHS) history.

NHS A&E performance igures show 54,000 people waited more than four hours for a bed after the hospital had decided they were sick enough to admit.

In this igure 258 patients waited more than 12 hours for a bed, compared to just 107 waiting in November 2017.

The igures released on Tuesday reveal the worst November A&E performance on record, with just 87.6 per cent of patients admitted, treated or sent home within four hours attending A&E.

Experts said this was a worrying symptom of unprecedented pressures in 2018 which lasted right through to summer, and which The Independent revealed has scuppered hospitals’ ability to prepare for winter.

In many cases the number of patients who waited more than 12 hours may also have been waiting to be seen at A&E before a decision to admit them.

The NHS is coping with steadily increasing demand, with 2.04 million attendances last month.

Improvements across social care mean many patients are sent home quickly after discharge, freeing up the equivalent of 742 beds across the NHS.

But experts warned there aren’t the staff available to open up additional beds if more capacity is needed.

“This is deeply troubling” Niall Dickson chief executive of the NHS Confederation said.

“Hospitals are now having to operate at unsafe levels – several are at full bed capacity and over a third are operating at 97 per cent or above bed occupancy. The cold, hard reality is that the NHS cannot keep pace with demand. These igures suggest we could be heading for one of the bleakest winters yet.”

Siva Anandaciva, chief analyst at the King’s Fund think tank said the number of logn waits at A&E was “signiicantly higher than last year.”

“These igures show little slack in a system which is operating consistently in the red zone,” he added.

The igures for November come as the NHS is reviewing long-standing benchmarks like the four hour target, and considering removing minor injuries which can safely wait.

But the Royal College of Emergency Medicine and others have criticised the plan, saying that they continue to help improve care and shouldn’t be revised for political convenience.