BACKING OF LABOUR MPS COULD BE MAY’S ONLY HOPE

Theresa May’s waning authority has taken another knock after she suffered an embarrassing rebuff at the EU summit in Brussels. To help her survive the co ni den ce vote among Tory MPS on Wednesday, she promised to seek legally binding EU assurances that the proposed back stop to prevent a hard Irish border would be temporary and time-limited.

But that raised great expectations the EU was never going to meet. The summit has been a presentational disaster for a tense-looking May, who angrily confronted Jean-claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, for telling the media she was “nebulous” in her demands. EU leaders dropped a proposal in their draft communique to offer her “further assurances”, perhaps fearing that real concessions now would only encourage Eurosceptic Tory MPS to demand more.

At a Brussels press conference this lunchtime, the prime minister insisted some progress had been made but conceded: “MPS will require further assurances.” She admitted to a “robust discussion” with Juncker – code for a row.

May’s problem was that frustrated EU leaders did not believe her optimism that, if they gave her a helping hand, her Brexit deal would secure a Commons majority when it is inally put to a vote in mid-january. They wanted a irm guarantee she could not give.

The EU’S predictable reaction will entrench the opposition to the deal among the 117 Tory MPS who voted to oust May in a conidence vote on Wednesday. May allies had hoped at least some of them would now “respect her mandate” and back her deal. But that won’t happen without game-changing concessions from the EU, which – as the summit shows – are very unlikely. Even her own cabinet ministers believe privately there is little hope of winning next month’s vote. Some will urge her to look at other options when the cabinet meets on Tuesday. May will probably play for time (again). But sooner or later, she will have to ind a plan B. With so much opposition on her own benches, the most likely way to get a deal through the Commons is to secure a cross-party majority.

The prime minister is tentatively reaching out. After her pyrrhic victory on Wednesday, she hoped to see “politicians on all sides coming together and acting in the national interest”. But it is not her natural instinct to be consensual – in her own party, let alone with MPS in rival ones. Cosying up to other parties would make it even less likely to get some of her Tory critics back on board. It’s not comfortable for any political leader to depend on the enemy; promises of support can turn into a parliamentary ambush.

At Labour’s conference in September, Jeremy Corbyn offered May a surprise olive branch, saying Labour would support a “sensible deal”, that Brexit was about “our vital interests” rather than “leadership squabbles or parliamentary posturing”. Yet May is right to be wary. Corbyn was always going to vote against whatever deal May secured, hoping a Commons rejection will result in a general election.

However, at some point, May will have to turn her attention to pro-european Labour backbenchers. Many fear a no-deal exit in March. Some represent areas which voted Leave in 2016 and so do not want to block Brexit.

Although Labour’s pro-eu wing will vote against May’s deal, some of its members might be tempted to back a plan B if it included a permanent customs union (Labour’s oficial policy) or a Norway-plus agreement inside the single market and a customs union.