Online calculator can predict risk of stroke, say researchers
NEW YORK: Researchers have developed an online calculator which can help doctors predict patients’ risk for ischemic stroke based on the severity of their metabolic syndrome.
Metabolic syndrome is a conglomeration of conditions that include high blood pressure, abnormal cholesterol levels and excess body fat around the abdomen and waist.
The study, published in the journal Stroke found that stroke risk increased consistently with metabolic syndrome severity even in patients without diabetes. Doctors can use this information — and a scoring tool developed by researchers to identify patients at risk and help them reduce that risk.
“We had previously shown that the severity of metabolic syndrome was linked to future coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes and this study showed further links to future ischemic strokes,” said study author Mark Deboer from the University of Florida in the US.
The research team developed the scoring tool, an online calculator to assess the severity of the metabolic syndrome.
To evaluate the association between ischemic stroke and metabolic syndrome, the research team reviewed more than 13,000 participants in prior studies and their stroke outcomes. Among that group, there were 709 ischemic strokes over a mean period of 18.6 years assessed in the studies.
The researchers used their tool to calculate “Z scores” measuring the severity of metabolic syndrome among the study participants.
They could then analyse the association between metabolic syndrome and ischemic stroke risk.
The researchers found that the subgroup with the highest association between metabolic syndrome and risk for ischemic stroke was white women. In this group, the research team was able to identify relationships between the individual contributors to metabolic syndromes, such as high blood pressure, and stroke risk.
The researchers noted that race and sex did not seem to make a major difference in stroke risk overall, and they caution that the increased risk seen in white women could be the results of chance alone. The overall relationship between metabolic syndrome severity and stroke risk was clear.
“And this suggests people with metabolic syndrome can make lifestyle changes to reduce that risk. Losing weight, exercising more, choosing healthy foods — all can help address metabolic syndrome and its harmful effects,” the researcher wrote.
The research team hopes that this tool will help doctors guide patients as they seek to reduce their stroke risk and improve their health and well-being.
On the other hand, each cigarete smoked a day by heavy smokers increases the risk of contracting several diseases by more than 30 per cent, warn researchers.
The study, which links heavy smoking with 28 separate health conditions, revealed a 17-fold increase in emphysema (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), an 8-fold increase in atherosclerosis ( clogged arteries) and a 6.5-fold higher incidence of lung cancer.
“Tobacco smoking is the leading preventable cause of death worldwide and smokers typically die 10 years earlier than non-smokers,” said study researcher Elina Hypponen from the University of South Australia. “Despite a global decline in smoking over the last 20 years, an estimated 20 per cent of the world’s population aged over 15 years are still smoking tobacco,” Hypponen added.
In the US alone, smokers number 40 million, with 16 million of those living with a disease caused by smoking. This costs their economy more than $300 billion per annum.
According to the researchers, the most recent statistics from Australia show that about 13.8 per cent of its adult population (2.6 million people) are daily smokers. Despite a 10 per cent reduction since 1995, smoking is estimated to kill 19,000 Australians a year, accounting for nine per cent of the total burden of disease and $137 billion in annual medical costs.
For the findings, published in Eclinical medicine, the research team analysed hospital data and mortality statistics from more than 152,483 smokers in the UK Biobank to look at how heavy smoking affects disease risks.
The researchers found the risk of suffering respiratory diseases, cancers and cardiovascular diseases increased with each cigarete smoked per day.
The link between heavy smoking and emphysema, heart disease, pneumonia and respiratory cancers was particularly high. The study also found associations with many other respiratory diseases, renal failure, septicaemia, eye disorders and complications of surgery or medical procedures.
Several known smoking outcomes, including stroke, were not identified in the study. “We only looked at how heavy smoking further affects disease risk in a group of people who are all at least past smokers, so compared to never smokers the health effects are going to be even more notable,” Hypponen said.