Manila faces 5,000 Delta variant cases daily: Experts

MANILA: Metro Manila faces the grim prospect of facing at least 5,000 infections daily by August particularly from the deadly Delta variant of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic if the government fails to immediately implement hard lockdown measures to prevent its spread, a group of independent researchers warned anew on Wednesday.

The Reverend Nicanor Austriaco, a molecular biologist and an OCTA research fellow, pointed out the Philippines should learn a lesson from its neighbors and fellow members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) now being besieged by the highly transmissible Delta strain.

Austriaco based his warning from OCTA projections that Metro Manila, officially called the National Capital Region (NCR), that once a Delta strain surge would start, “it accelerates in an explosive fashion.” “Projections based on the Delta variant on our Asean neighbors suggest the surge will begin to impact on our heathcare system in the NCR by the middle of August.

“Our hospitals will become overwhelmed by the end of August,” Austriaco, a Dominican priest, told an online media briefing.

He cited as examples the cases of the other Asean members where the Delta variant, which originated from India, continued to wreak havoc on their economies and on the lives of their peoples.

No Asean country was able to stop and reverse the surge in cases caused by the Delta strain without a hard lockdown in major cities, according to Austriaco.

He did not identify the Asean members but he was apparently referring to Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia besieged by the Delta strain.

“The longer we wait to act,” Austriaco warned, “the harder we will be able to halt and reverse the surge. The earlier the lockdown, the shorter the lockdown.”

Despite the OCTA research group warning, the Department of Health (DOH) insisted there was no surge in the the Delta strain cases in

Metro Manila, composed of 16 cities and one town with a total population of more than 12 million.

But the DOH also admited that there were at least 25 reported Delta strain infections in Metro Manila of the total of 119 cases in various regions composed of local infections and returning mostly overseas Filipino workers (OFWS).

At the same time, another OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David, a mathematician, also projected that without the recommended implementation of a hard lockdown, the daily COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila would hit 5,000 during the later part of August.