Global stocks edge up in jittery trade, FX shifts unsettle traders
The risk of Japan intervening to prevent further falls in the yen squeezed the dollar. However, it rose against the yuan on speculation that China may tolerate a weaker currency
Global shares edged up on Tuesday, partially shrugging off mixed messages from US policymakers and a wobble in the Chinese yuan that unsetled investors ahead of Friday’s US inflation data.
The risk of Japan intervening to prevent further falls in the yen squeezed the dollar. However, it rose against the yuan on speculation that China may tolerate a weaker currency.
The MSCI All-world index increased 0.1% on the day, aided by a 0.2% rise in Europe’s STOXX 600, while S&P 500 futures climbed 0.4%.
In the spotlight was the yen, which has been trading close to its weakest against the dollar since 1990, even ater the Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week for the first time in 17 years.
The 14% decline in the yen’s value over the last 12 months fed a surge in Tokyo’s Nikkei index to record highs this month, but stirred concern among Japanese officials that the recent depreciation is problematic.
“FX was the wallflower for most of Q1, when we had record highs for stocks,” XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said.
“We’ve got changing sands in the FX market. You’ve got threat of intervention from Japan ... and from China. It’s good to see that they do actually care about the economy and they are wiling to step in. It’s not quite the stimulus we want, but they are saying ‘enough is enough now, we do need to worry about our deflation’,” she said.
The yen strengthened a touch on Tuesday, leaving the dollar down 0.1% at 151.35.
Monday’s rhetoric from Japan’s top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, kept the yen steady as traders weighed the risk of Japan buying heavily. Kanda said the yen’s recent slide was “strange” and “speculative”.
Meanwhile, the yuan, which the Chinese central bank fixed at a firmer level earlier in the day, also gained ground on the dollar, which fell 0.1% in the offshore market to 7.245.
Markets have been unsetled since Friday’s sharp drop in the yuan ater months of tight trading, and some speculate China is loosening its grip on the currency to allow it to fall.
“Whether this reflects a shit in FX policy remains to be seen but accommodative monetary conditions are necessary in the face of growth headwinds,” said Bofa Securities’ strategist Adarsh Sinha.
“If (yuan) depreciation sustains and coincides with a weaker credit impulse, Asia FX is vulnerable.”
MIXED OUTLOOKS: On Monday, a mixed outlook from Federal Reserve officials threw a few wildcards into the policy outlook while markets wait on the next U.S. inflation indicators due on Good Friday.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he had pencilled in three rate cuts this year, while Fed Governor Lisa Cook urged caution and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated Friday remarks trimming his expectations to one cut.
“Comments by FOMC participants suggest to us that four voters - Bostic, Bowman, Mester, and Barkin - see zero, one or two cuts this year,” said Standard Chartered strategist Steve Englander.
“We still think (chairman Jerome) Powell has eight votes for easing, but he probably does not want an 8-4 vote on the first cut of the cycle. Rather, he may hope that good inflation outcomes will allow him to swing a couple of votes into the cuting camp in the coming months.”
U.S. interest rate futures price about three Fed rate cuts this year and about a three-in-four chance of the first cut in June.
U.S. two-year yields, which track short-term interest rate expectations, rose 1 basis point to 4.599% in early U.S. trade.
Later on Tuesday, U.S. manufacturing, services and consumer confidence figures are due. U.S. core PCE data is due on Friday.
Gold rallied 1.1% to $2,195 an ounce, while Brent crude futures held largely unchanged on the day at $86.79 a barrel.
Bitcoin traded around $70,000 ater rising sharply on Monday.
UK’S FTSE 100 inched lower on Tuesday, dragged by miner stocks, while mixed messages from U.S. monetary policymakers raised concerns about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
The blue-chip FTSE 100 was down 0.2%, by 0818 GMT and the domestically oriented FTSE 250 was down 0.1%. Industrial metal miners fell 1.1%, tracking lower base metal prices.
Fed officials said on Monday they still had faith that U.S. inflation will ease, but also acknowledged an increased sense of caution around the debate, fuelling concerns over the interest rate outlook. Shares of Ocado Group rose 3.4% ater online supermarket Ocado Retail, a 50:50 joint venture between Ocado Group and Marks & Spencer, reported a 10.6% increase in revenue in its latest quarter.