TOWARDS END GAME
ON SYRIA
The US military began to withdraw equipment from northern Syria ahead of Donald Trump’s troop pull out as Turkish intelligence and military chiefs met in the border province of Hatay (occupied Syrian Iskandarun) to discuss the situation in Syria’s Idlib where Al Qaeda has assumed full control.
The lorry loads of equipment making for Iraq demonstrated all too clearly that Trump had given the US military to begin the withdrawal process and that he has no intention of drawing it out over three or four months.
Although US armed forces chiefs, politicians and commentators have warned that a hurried withdrawal could be disastrous, Trump is, after all, commander-in-chief. So, the withdrawal has begun without a clear timetable for the redeployment of the 2,200 US troops embedded with the Kurdish-dominated Democratic Forces militia which has been battling Daesh over the past four years.
In spite of Trump’s claim that the ight AGAINST DAESH HAS BEEN won, FUGITIVE ighters Continue to CAUSE mayhem along Syria’s south-eastern border with Iraq and in that country. Trump is commander-in-chief so Trump knows best.
The lorries began to roll as Trump’s Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and security adviser John Bolton toured the region in a bid to reassure allies that the troop withdrawal would not be precipitate destabilising or lead to a Turkish military campaign against Us-allied Syrian Kurds. The pull out of equipment contradicted Pompeo and Bolton and alarmed the region. This did not worry Trump.
After all withdrawal was promised by the commander-in-chief while campaigning for the presidency. He also wants half of the 14,000 US soldiers serving in Afghanistan to return home soon. The Taliban will celebrate when he issues this order.
Trump’s command to leave Syria coincided with the defeat of Turkey’s surrogate National Army forces based in Idlib to Al Qaeda’s Hay’at Tahrir al-sham (formerly Jabhat al-nusra) Following nine Days of IERCE IGHTING. During this time Tahrir Al Sham seized scores of villages and towns from Ankara’s National Army, gaining control of 75 per cent of the province, the last bastion of insurgents in Syria.
WHILE some pro-turkish ighters LED to TURKISH-OCCUPIED pockets of territory in northern Syria, Ankara advised commanders to accept a truce and recognise Tahrir Al Sham’s civilian administration over Idlib.
Turkey’s Defence Minister Hulusi Akar, Chief of Staff Yasar Guler, Land Forces Commander Umit Dundar and Intelligence head Hakan Fidan were in crisis mode when they gathered near the Idlib border. Following their discussion, Akar said that “all efforts” would BE MADE to maintain THE CEASEIRE agreement reached last September in the Russian resort of Sochi, and promote stability. He added, “..close cooperation with Russia continues.”
The defeat of Turkey’s surrogates shows that the mainly fundamentalist factions are no match for dedicated, highly motivated Tahrir al-sham ighters who HAVE no PLACE to Go IF they are defeated in Idlib. The Syrian army and its Russian and Iranian allies ARE likely to ind THE task of ousting them Dificult.
Following the capitulation of Turkey’s surrogate forces, Tahrir Al Sham spokesman Hames Mojahed announced, “WE will maintain THE same CEASEIRE as formerly agreed.” That remains to be seen as the radicals never adhered to THE CEASEIRE DEAL By pulling out of the buffer zone created around Idlib and continuing to mount attacks on the Syrian army deployed in Aleppo and Hama provinces bordering on Idlib.
While Ankara’s armed forces and intelligence chiefs are focused on Idlib and the possibility that the Syrian army will now launch an offensive to retake the province, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains focused on the Us-backed Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) which form the BACKBONE of THE FORCE IGHTING DAESH in eastern Syria.
Erdogan has branded the YPG a “terrorist” organisation and seeks to DRIVE Its ighters From A WIDE swath of territory on the Syrian side of the border with Turkey. Like Trump, Erdogan an is a commander-in-chief with a mission. His mission is to send his army into north-eastern Syria and has promised Trump to not only ight THE Kurds But also to eradicate Daesh.
Trump seems to have taken this pledge on board without checking out the map.
Daesh remnants are operating hundreds of kilometres from the Syrian-turkish border.
Tackling them would mean fullscale Turkish army operations in the 25 per cent of Syria now held by the Ypg-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Furthermore, the SDF CAN muster 25-30,000 seasoned ighters and an equal number of reservists. They could be joined by Syrian army troops and allied militiamen with Russia providing air cover with the aim of preserving Syrian territorial integrity and preventing a massive Turkish land-grab.
Fearing US abandonment, the Kurds they have appealed to Russia for protection and presented to Damascus a road-map providing for the return to the government of the territory they hold in exchange for limited autonomy. If such a deal is accepted and implemented, the government would be in control of 90 per cent of Syria, leaving only Idlib and attached tracts of territory.
To regain Idlib, the Syrian army and its partners will have to tackle TAHRIR Al SHAM ighters who HAVE no place to go if they are defeated in Idlib. According to a source in Damascus, the Syrian military does not plan a frontal offensive but a protracted campaign to whittle away territory controlled by Tahrir al-sham.
This is a legitimate objective because the group and Daesh have been branded “terrorist” by the UN and the international community. Damascus HAS no Alternative to ight Tahrir Al Sham. The government is determined to rid Idlib of insurgents of all types and return all Syrian territory to Damascus’ rule. Russia and Iran have pledged their aid in this effort.
THE AUTHOR