C could destabilise the larger region

crisis. With national elections in Ethiopia and Somalia approaching, Ahmed and Farmajo need to gain support for re-election.

In Eritrea, the authoritarian ruler Afwerki has reportedly pushed for the creation of the Horn of Africa regional bloc presumably as an opportunity to boost Eritrea’s reputation regionally. It is also a chance to sideline the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, which he has boycotted for several years due to its stance on basic principles of good governance and the influence of Kenya. Potential consequences for the region Once established, the Horn of Africa Cooperation would become a direct competitor of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, which is comprised of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda. Its efforts to manage conflicts in Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan have been fairly successful in recent years.

However, it lacks an economic integration perspective. It also suffers from ineffective governance structures and insufficient resources. The Horn of Africa Cooperation proposal could be an attempt to push for reform within the organisation.

But the new regional bloc will have a hard time building a reputation vis-a-vis the authority. The Horn of Africa Cooperation could also affect the East Africa Standby Force’s and more importantly the African Union’s security efforts in the region through the African Peace and Security Architecture.

The cooperation also stands to alienate regional partners who face the potential loss of strategic influence in the region. In fact, initial reactions from Kenya and Djibouti were frosty. Djibouti is a direct neighbour of all three states – and a potential candidate to join the new bloc.

Yet, Djibouti is home to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. It also hosts the US Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa. Moreover, the Addis Ababa–Djibouti Railway is currently Ethiopia’s only access to the sea and Ethiopian business generates significant revenue for Djibouti’s ports. Therefore, transport links through Eritrea or Somalia could undermine Djibouti’s position as an economic and logistical hub.

For regional powerhouse Kenya, closer cooperation between the three neighbours could result in diminished influence in the region. As the dominating actor in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, Kenya’s influence in the Horn would be affected by a competing Horn of Africa Cooperation.

Additionally, Kenya’s transport-link project with Ethiopia and South Sudan could be threatened by the new cooperation. Therefore, it’s no surprise that the Horn of Africa Cooperation has been branded “anti-IGAD”.

There have been mixed responses to the Horn cooperation idea. After the trilateral announcement, former Somalia State Minister Adam Aw Hirsi created a Twitter poll:

The majority of the 1,022 people who responded were in favour of the new regional bloc. Generally, people from Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia welcome the initiative whereas those from Djibouti and Kenya are more questioning.

In summary, the proposed Horn of Africa Cooperation promises to address transnational and cooperation problems between the three countries. Yet, it might create additional distrust, bring about conflicts in the region, affect relations to close neighbours, and complicate cooperation with other regional institutions.

This could negatively impact peacekeeping activities in the Greater Horn of Africa, most imminently in Somalia and South Sudan. But for now, it remains to be seen if the new initiative will pull states together or apart.