Are we going to experience another pandemic?

Are we going to experience another pandemic? A lot of people keep asking me this question, and my answer to it is very short, “Most probably, yes”. Let me take you back to 2014 when we had one of the most vicious outbreaks this world has ever seen; the Ebola virus in West Africa. The WHO declared it a ‘ public health emergency of national concern’ on August 8th 2014, automatically triggering the affected countries to activate their respective countries’ state of emergencies and vigorous public health responses. As usual, the WHO received a lot of public backlash for their slow processes and lack of response, which we saw again happening at the beginning of the COVID- 19 pandemic. Remember SARS? Remember one that we are still failing to get rid of HIV/ AIDS?

One would hope that a lot of lessons would have been learned from the Ebola time and used to prepare for any possible future outbreaks, but here we are again, caught completely off- guard by a more savage virus which even brought the entire world economy to a complete halt. Towards the end of 2014 going into early 2015 we witnessed a very rare occurrence - politicians working together with scientists for a common purpose. They became more focused on public health than ever before until the situation was brought under control and then everything went back to square one.

This is what ended up happening when that mutualism between politicians and scientists died down; today we’re still talking about inadequate funding for pandemic preparedness which means we failed to address that; delays in adopting preventive measures; failure to develop surge capacity in health systems, laboratories and supply chain logistics; and reduced infectious disease expertise.

So the way I see it, in the next few decades, we will very much likely see other pandemics and we will still be unprepared. The good thing is that science today can make some predictions with reasonable confidence because of the recent increased frequency of major epidemics, also because of social and environmental changes driven by humans that may have contributed to COVID- 19’ s emergence. Actually, a COVID- 19- type pandemic had long been predicted, but scientists’ warnings weren’t heeded, as usual. All one can hope for is that now, while we have the full attention of politicians and other key decision- makers, we need to start rethinking our approaches to future preparedness internationally and within our own nations.

However, despite all the gruesome effects of COVID- 19 that almost every country has felt so far, the few positives I managed to pick are that there are signs that some lessons may have been learned. Countries most affected by SARS have tended to respond more quickly and decisively to COVID- 19 than other countries, which give some assurance that they managed to prepare to a certain extent. We have also witnessed a rapid improvement in the vaccine development processes, considering the fact that currently a number of potentials are in their advanced stages of clinical trials and soon to be made available for public consumption. Keep in mind that this is something that would initially take at least 5 – 10 years to complete.

What do we need going forward? We need to strengthen our capabilities in areas such as epidemiology, outbreak management, develop strong pandemic plans that are flexible enough to respond to all eventualities. Most importantly, we need a new generation of scientists and professionals who are system thinkers and comfortable working with multiple disciplines across the human- animal- environment interface.

If we want to build a world that will be ready for any future pandemic, that’s where we need to start, otherwise we will keep taking two steps forward and five backwards. Again, YES, WE ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE ANOTHER PANDEMIC IN THE NEAR FUTURE. Health for One, Health for All. Kenneth T. Photlokwe

MSc Medicine ( Vaccinology) - Wits Email: photlokwekenneth@ gmail. com Facebook: Kenneth T. Photlokwe Twitter: @ Kenny_ TP