The US elections
Trump could not manage to postpone an election, not even due to a pandemic. The bigger picture is that the apparent tranquility and consensus in many African countries belies the instability forged out of ‘ big man’ politics. s America’s election day draws closer, focus will be more sharply directed towards the prospects of the so- called main tickets, Donald Trump and Mike Pence versus Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. In Africa, two conflicting opinions have emerged on which of the two tickets portends the best interests for the continent. One strand of opinion is that there will be continuity in US policy towards Africa regardless of whether Trump or Biden wins. On the other hand, however, there is a strong sentiment that Biden and the Democratic party portends better prospects for the continent than Trump and the Republicans.
AA scientific approach for gauging the levels of favourability between Trump and Biden in Africa would be to conduct an opinion poll, similar to the latest survey conducted by the Pew Research Centre which compared Trump against other world leaders, namely, Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Emmanuel Macron, the Unite Kingdom’s Boris Johnson, Russia’s Vladmir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping.
In the absence of such a poll however, a loose assessment of the two contenders’ popularity can be made from African media- based public sentiment.
The politics of identity and race relations provide one set of lenses through which an assessment of the candidates can be made. A sentiment that features prominently is the supposition that Biden is the candidate for African Americans who in turn have roots on the continent while Trump is seen as anti- African American. This perspective rose to prominence in this year’s elections after the murder of an African American man, George Floyd, in May 2020 by a police officer. The condemnation of this incident by the African Union among other voices was read as a criticism of the American regime currently in power.
From an American policy towards Africa perspective, Trump seems to lose out to Biden. Trump’s ostensible unilateralism versus a supposed multilateral inclination by Biden is a major point of consideration. Because of their economic and political weaknesses, Africans would be more in favour of an America that promotes multilateralism rather than an “America First” policy. Trump lost some favourability in Africa over his alleged denigration of Africans in 2018. In the case of South Africa, open differences between Trump and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in 2018 over land issues constitute a low moment in relations between these two countries.
The above analysis would clearly place Trump on the backfooting in terms of favourability on the continent. Yet, alternative viewpoints would suggest otherwise. For instance, from the perspective of foreign policy continuity, the Trump administration has continued the tradition of supporting Africa in various ways. A recent example is the donations to African countries during the COVID- 19 pandemic even as the US withdrew from the World Health Organization.
More significantly, the initial euphoria in Africa about Biden’s candidacy has in recent times been replaced by caution as it became clear that Trump could still win the election. It is probable that a greater number of Africans are beginning to understand the American election system and therefore are expecting a potential Trump win in November. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 to Hillary Clinton but won the electoral college vote and therefore the presidency. Caution is warranted because the same could happen this time.
There are some Africans who maintain a sense of incredulity about the doubts surrounding the integrity of the upcoming US elections. Many on the continent, and indeed the world, had unquestioningly bought into the widely promulgated image of America as a bastion of democracy. Now, the upshot is that some critical systematic and systemic problems with the American political system have been exposed. Going forward, African scholars, leaders, activists and public intellectuals are bound to question the taken- for- granted notion that the American democracy serves as a role model for African states. For, how can that be when there are doubts on the legitimate transition from one regime to another? How can Africans emulate the US when there is ongoing talk about manipulation of the vote? How can America be a standardbearer of democracy when widespread disinformation campaigns and reports/ fears of violence have become major talking points around this election? More than anything, November 3 will be a test of the US’ democratic processes while Africa, and the rest of the world, watches on and weighs in.