Impact of “new normal” on Force Readiness

The novel Coronavirus has spread rapidly across the world. Its virulence and high fatality rate have created a public health crisis the likes the world has not seen in living memory. Repeated national lockdowns have sent both national economies and the global economy into the deep end, leaving livelihoods in peril. Both civil and military resources are being strained in response to this new event. The rapidly spreading impact of COVID- 19 has dire consequences for Botswana Defence Force ( BDF)’ s ability to protect the national interest. In particular, the virus has negative repercussions for force readiness. The enduring primary mission of the BDF is to provide combat- ready military forces needed to deter adversaries from aggression against our vital interests. At the same time, the BDF has a well- established, clearly defined core capability of providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to civilian authorities during times of crisis. Consistent with this mission, the BDF has commissioned “Operation Dibela Sechaba” to provide critical assistance through its various capability in the fight against the COVID- 19 pandemic.

In order to achieve this end, commanders endeavour to maintain a military that is trained and ready to respond to crises at home and abroad. The BDF’s ability to deter, and if necessary, defeat aggression requires bases prepared to support: personnel training and equipping, tracking and managing the rapid influx of materiel, uninterrupted communication across vast distances, facilities protected against incursions both physical or electronic, and coordinating deployment. Despite the global pandemic, adversaries will likely remain undeterred in achieving their own objectives. Anticipating the BDF military may have its attention focused on COVID- 19, adversaries may be emboldened to seize what they view as a window of opportunity. This is best illustrated by the low- intensity conflict with poachers in the Ngami- Chobe Sector. It is further illustrated by increased cross- border criminality that we have been experiencing as the pandemic rages. Although these defence and security priorities remain, the BDF finds itself simultaneously assisting with the nation’s emergency response to the ongoing pandemic in cities and villages across the country. At the same time, it has to stem the spread of the disease within its ranks. Any degradation to military readiness due to the virus, or the perception of a BDF with a divided attention, could create vulnerabilities that opportunistic adversaries may exploit.

COVID- 19’ s impact on military readiness and force projection may have significant shortterm and mid- term consequences. Currently military training and maintain force readiness are in direct opposition to the transmission and protective measures of social distancing, wearing a mask, and washing hands often. Whether on armoured personnel carrier ( APC) operating aircraft, or training new recruits in boot camp, military training and readiness activities often require gathering individuals close together in tightly confined spaces. In addition to operational units, training commands, encompassing everything from basic military training for new recruits to flight school produce a steady supply of skilled personnel as a key labour resource to the force. Little if any slack exists in military training pipelines, so disruptions to this human- capital supply chain could create future gaps in force capacity and capability. The highly contagious nature of the virus presents a risk to troops, whether conducting operations overseas, training or other routine operations, or directly participating in the COVID- 19 response. The primary challenge the BDF faces presently, is balancing its missions against the risk to U. S. forces that the virus presents.

One useful construct is to evaluate ‘ risk- tomission’ versus ‘ risk- to- force.’ Risk- to- mission here is the likelihood that forces fail to achieve their objectives. Given the stated importance of a mission, military leaders may assume more or less risk of accomplishing a mission and look to employ additional resources or controls in order to ensure mission success. Similarly, risk- to- force is the likelihood that military personnel could be harmed given a certain set of hazards or threats. Leaders typically look for ways to minimize risk- to- force while ensuring mission success. Operating between these two extremes, the BDF should implement strategies to mitigate both the risk- to- mission as well as the risk- to- force regarding COVID- 19.